13 October 2011: In-play Football Prediction

Nils Rudi
INSEAD

Abstract:
For in-play football prediction, we consider a model based on Poisson arrival rates of goals. We prove that for a given pre-game trinomial predictive distribution of the result (i.e., home, tie and away), there exist a unique pair of Poisson arrival rates which correspond to it. This facilities the base model of in-play prediction with an absolute minimum requirement of data analysis. This result is extended to non-stationary arrival rates and state (score difference) dependent arrival rates. We perform an empirical investigation of the models using a large set of data from multiple leagues, and contrast the results with those of logistic regression.

Date: October 13, 2011
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor),
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

View Larger Map