20 April 2011: Will the 'Demographic Dividend' Help India become a Superpower?

Jayan Jose Thomas
Indian Institue of Technology, Delhi

Abstract:
India has a relatively young population, and some commentators argue that the resultant ‘demographic dividend’ could push India’s economic growth ahead of China’s in the future. Since the 1990s, there has been a boom in India in the information technology industry as well as in a number of knowledge-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals research and animation. However, the other side of the coin is that these new, technologically advanced sectors form only a tiny island in the ocean in terms of employment. In India’s total workforce of 458 million (2004-05), factory sector workers number less than 10 million and the IT sector employs just 2.2 million. Almost all of the 57 million new jobs generated in India between 1999-00 and 2004-05 were in the informal sector. A crisis-ridden agriculture, construction, and low value-adding services, including notably of women employed as domestic workers, provided most of the new jobs. Women, especially educated women in urban areas, found it particularly hard to find suitable employment opportunities. The number of ‘missing women’ in the Indian economy -- women who withdraw from labour force and attend only to household work – was a staggering 162 million in 2004-05.

It is clear from the above that there are limitations to India’s rapid economic growth led almost entirely by the services sector. Building a diversified manufacturing sector that can generate massive employment opportunities is, therefore, crucial for Indian development. To fulfill India’s aspirations for a leading position in the global economy, the country will also have to emerge as a key player in innovation, and this requires state-directed efforts in research and development. The biggest of all challenges for India as it tries to realize its demographic dividend is to ensure that its population numbering more than 1.2 billion is healthy and educated.

Date: April 20, 2011
Time: 11:00 A.M.

Venue:
Seminar Hall-1 (Second Floor),
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave,
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)

Location:

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25 March 2011: China and India in the Near Future - A Political Economy Viewpoint

Pranab Bardhan
University of California, Berkeley

Abstract:
Drawing upon his recently published book, Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay: Assessing the Economic Rise of China and India (Oxford University Press), Professor Pranab Bardhan will talk about the performance and prospects of the Chinese and Indian economy in terms of the rate and pattern of growth, poverty, inequality, and environmental conditions and end with some general reflections on the nature of capitalist development and governance and accountability issues for both countries.

Date: March 25, 2011
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Hall-1 (Second Floor),
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave,
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)

Location:

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21 February 2011: India and the World - The Economic Dimension

Dr. Sanjaya Baru
IISS

Abstract:
Graduating from the post-colonial phase of its interaction with the world and
re-orienting its foreign policy to deal with the post- Cold War world, India
discovered that its re-emergence as a major economic entity in the global
system is increasingly shaping its grand strategy. India's rise as a major
power is intrinsically linked to its rise as a major economy.

Two ideas and two phenomenon have shaped this thinking. The first idea is the
concept of Comprehensive National Power (CNP); second, the idea of
'inter-dependence', as opposed to 'dependence', in a globalised world economy.
The two phenomenon are, first, the collapse of the Soviet Union and rise of
China, based on theories of CNP and inter-dependence; and, second, the growing
influence of the business and middle classes in shaping Indian foreign policy.

India's attempts to build a CNP series (Index of National Security), the range
of FTA/ CECA and CEPA, the economic component of a range of strategic
partnerships help quantify the importance of economic development and openness
to India¡'s grand strategy. An Index of Bilateral Relationship (IBR) based on
people-to-people, business-to-business and government-to-government relations
would therefore offer a more balanced picture of the relative importance of
India's emerging strategic partnerships.

Date: February 21, 2011
Time: 4:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Hall-1 (Second Floor),
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave,
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)

Location:

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9 February 2011: India's Counterinsurgency Strategy 2020

Vasundhara Sirnate

University of California, Berkeley

Abstract
The presence of any insurgency is indicative of the absence or failure of regular models and processes of substantively representative democratic politics, and, the failure of conventional models of economic development. Today 20 out of 28 Indian states have at least one insurgent group operating on their territory. In the northeast alone at last count there were 117 insurgent groups (both operational and inactive). The Indian Maoists have been able to purportedly establish a presence in 220 Indian districts in what is called the “Red Corridor”. Levels of human security are abysmal in these parts of the country. Several insurgencies have acquired an economic logic and momentum of their own. In other cases, the extreme number of insurgent groups active in a given piece of territory has made pacts unviable, like in Manipur. The use of subcontracted force in Chhattisgarh has been severely criticized for the rise in civilian deaths and revenge killings that it generated. Many insurgent groups are located in areas where the state’s administrative presence is weak or historically exploitative; police-population ratios are low and regions that are heavily forested or mountainous. This has thrown up unique tactical challenges for the state and forced the state to experiment with different models of combating insurgency. Clearly, insurgency and counterinsurgency, between them, have generated sufficiently durable dynamics that have led to peace in some cases (like Mizoram), but have exacerbated the problem in other cases (Manipur, Chhattisgarh). While the persistence of insurgencies in India is definitely not conclusive proof that enough is not being done to combat them, it is still sufficiently indicative that current models of counterinsurgency, and, our understanding of insurgencies needs to be refashioned and repositioned in response to current evaluations of ground situations and what learning can be gleaned from these conditions.


Date: February 9, 2011 

Time: 11:00 A.M.

Venue:
Boardroom,
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave, 
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)

Location:

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