Rajeswari Sengupta
Institute for Financial Management & Research (IFMR)
Abstract:
In recent years, central banks in emerging markets have accumulated large amounts of foreign exchange reserves. For many countries, a key intent has been to increase the resilience of their economies to a possible sudden stop in capital inflows. Yet such policies may have the undesired effect of increasing corporate sector vulnerability: foreign exchange hoarding can be perceived as a free insurance against short term movements of the exchange rate, leading firms to borrow excessively in foreign currency. We investigate this possibility by using a novel firm-level balance sheet database for close to 1500 firms between 1995 and 2007 in six Latin American economies, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Results suggest that over the sample period, an increase in the level of reserves is statistically and economically associated with an increase in the dollar borrowing of non-financial sector firms of these economies. We investigate several potential explanations for this result, and find evidence that at least part of this positive correlation reflects greater corporate risk taking as a causal response to an improvement in a country's reserve buffers against external shocks. These findings suggest that central banks, while formulating their foreign exchange intervention policies, may need to take into consideration the impact of reserve accumulation on firms incentive to hedge exchange rate risk.
Date: April 4, 2012
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Friday, March 23, 2012
27 March 2012: Do departures from Democratic Accountability Compromise the Stability of Public Finances?
Stanley L. Winer
Caleton University, Canada
Date: March 27, 2012
Time: 10:00 A.M.
Venue:
NIPFP Conference Room, Ground Floor, New Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
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Caleton University, Canada
Date: March 27, 2012
Time: 10:00 A.M.
Venue:
NIPFP Conference Room, Ground Floor, New Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
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Tuesday, March 20, 2012
20 March 2012: The Asian Century and the G20: An Australian Perspective on a Changing World
Gordon de Brouwer
Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Australia
Abstract:
The 2012 Sir John Crawford Lecture marks the Australia-India Council's 20th anniversary. Established in 2001, the Sir John Crawford Lecture Series provides a forum for eminent Australians to deliver lectures in India on topics of common public interest. It aims at exchange of expertise and promotion of professional links and understanding between the two countries. A joint initiative of the Australia-India Council and the National Council of Applied Economic Research, the lecture series commemorates Sir John Crawford, a prominent Australian economist who helped pioneer the Green revolution in India. Earlier speakers in chronological order include Dr Lloyd Evans, Sir Gustav Nossal, Prof. Ross Garnaut, Prof. Alan Fels, Prof. Peter Drysdale and Prof. Ian Harper.
Date: March 20, 2012
Time: 05:45 P.M.
Venue:
The Somany Hall,
ASSOCHAM House
47 Prithviraj Road,
New Delhi-110011(INDIA)
Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Australia
Abstract:
The 2012 Sir John Crawford Lecture marks the Australia-India Council's 20th anniversary. Established in 2001, the Sir John Crawford Lecture Series provides a forum for eminent Australians to deliver lectures in India on topics of common public interest. It aims at exchange of expertise and promotion of professional links and understanding between the two countries. A joint initiative of the Australia-India Council and the National Council of Applied Economic Research, the lecture series commemorates Sir John Crawford, a prominent Australian economist who helped pioneer the Green revolution in India. Earlier speakers in chronological order include Dr Lloyd Evans, Sir Gustav Nossal, Prof. Ross Garnaut, Prof. Alan Fels, Prof. Peter Drysdale and Prof. Ian Harper.
Date: March 20, 2012
Time: 05:45 P.M.
Venue:
The Somany Hall,
ASSOCHAM House
47 Prithviraj Road,
New Delhi-110011(INDIA)
20 March 2012: Expectations and the Short-Period Equilibrium of a Monetary Economy
Jyotirmoy Bhattacharya
B. R. Ambedkar University, Delhi
Abstract:
We investigate the existence of a monetary equilibrium in a model
which has no role for money as a medium of ex-change in the temporary
equilibrium framework of Grandmont (1977) and Grandmont and Younes
(1972). We demonstrate the importance of bounds on agents’ price
expectations for the existence in this model of an equilibrium with a
strictly positive value of money.
Date: March 20, 2012
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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B. R. Ambedkar University, Delhi
Abstract:
We investigate the existence of a monetary equilibrium in a model
which has no role for money as a medium of ex-change in the temporary
equilibrium framework of Grandmont (1977) and Grandmont and Younes
(1972). We demonstrate the importance of bounds on agents’ price
expectations for the existence in this model of an equilibrium with a
strictly positive value of money.
Date: March 20, 2012
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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27 March 2012: One-Sided Uncertainty and Delay in Reputational Bargaining
Dilip Abreu
Princeton University
Abstract:
A two-person infinite-horizon bargaining model where one of the players may have either of two discount factors, has a multiplicity of perfect Bayesian equilibria. Introducing the slightest possibility that either player may be one of a rich variety of stationary
behavioral types singles out a particular solution and appears to support some axiomatic treatments in the early literature. Perturbing the model with a slightly broader class of behavioral types that allows the informed player to delay making his initial offer again achieves powerful equilibrium refinement. But there is substantial delay to agreement, and predictions depend continuously on the ex ante probabilities of the patient and impatient types of the informed player, counter to what the literature suggests.
Date: March 27, 2012
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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Princeton University
Abstract:
A two-person infinite-horizon bargaining model where one of the players may have either of two discount factors, has a multiplicity of perfect Bayesian equilibria. Introducing the slightest possibility that either player may be one of a rich variety of stationary
behavioral types singles out a particular solution and appears to support some axiomatic treatments in the early literature. Perturbing the model with a slightly broader class of behavioral types that allows the informed player to delay making his initial offer again achieves powerful equilibrium refinement. But there is substantial delay to agreement, and predictions depend continuously on the ex ante probabilities of the patient and impatient types of the informed player, counter to what the literature suggests.
Date: March 27, 2012
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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22 March 2012: Sustaining Global Growth
Wendy Dobson
University of Toronto
Abstract:
Despite the urgent attention being paid to the European debt crisis one of the G20's high economic priorities is to reduce the external imbalances in the world economy. Wendy Dobson presents the results of a recent study prepared for APEC Finance Ministers by the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council. The study analyses what rebalancing would look like in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of the adjustments required of the major players -- and assesses what has actually been accomplished since the onset of the global financial crisis.
Date: March 22, 2012
Time: 03:30 P.M.
Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)
Location:
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Note:
For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.
University of Toronto
Abstract:
Despite the urgent attention being paid to the European debt crisis one of the G20's high economic priorities is to reduce the external imbalances in the world economy. Wendy Dobson presents the results of a recent study prepared for APEC Finance Ministers by the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council. The study analyses what rebalancing would look like in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of the adjustments required of the major players -- and assesses what has actually been accomplished since the onset of the global financial crisis.
Date: March 22, 2012
Time: 03:30 P.M.
Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)
Location:
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Note:
For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.
22 March 2012: Reaching the Base of the Pyramid: Lessons Learned from Rural Sanitation
Jacqueline Devine
World Bank
Abstract:
A major challenge faced by development specialists is to design effective strategies to deliver social and infrastructure services to poor segments of the population (the so-called base of the pyramid). While many successful interventions reaching the base of the pyramid exist, there is still a need to develop and document programs that do so cost-effectively, sustainably, and at large scale. This BBL aims to share approaches and lessons learned from the Water and Sanitation Program's Scaling Up Rural Sanitation in reaching the base of the pyramid.
Date: March 22, 2012
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
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Note:
Please confirm your attendance by mail to Jyoti Sriram at
jsriram@worldbank.org by Wednesday, March 21st
World Bank
Abstract:
A major challenge faced by development specialists is to design effective strategies to deliver social and infrastructure services to poor segments of the population (the so-called base of the pyramid). While many successful interventions reaching the base of the pyramid exist, there is still a need to develop and document programs that do so cost-effectively, sustainably, and at large scale. This BBL aims to share approaches and lessons learned from the Water and Sanitation Program's Scaling Up Rural Sanitation in reaching the base of the pyramid.
Date: March 22, 2012
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
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Note:
Please confirm your attendance by mail to Jyoti Sriram at
jsriram@worldbank.org by Wednesday, March 21st
Monday, March 19, 2012
23 March 2012: Preliminary Evidence of an Effect of India's Total Sanitation Campaign on Early Life Health
Dean E. Spears
Princeton University
Abstract:
The Total Sanitation Campaign built approximately one latrine per ten rural residents of India from 2001 to 2011. This paper uses an annual panel of disaggregated construction data, matched to several sources of household, village, and district data.
- Districts in which more latrines were constructed over this period saw a greater decline in rural infant mortality rates, controlling for other changes, a difference-indifferences result that is strengthened using heterogeneity in an incentive for local government compliance as an instrument for program intensity. This effect is not found for urban IMRs (urban infants were not exposed to the program), nor is a similar correlation with IMR found of district-level intensity of two other government programs from the 2000s.
- Individual data from another source finds a similar decline in infant mortality - quantitatively between the district-level differences and IV results - associated with the TSC latrines built by the first year of a child's life, found using district and year fixed effects and other controls. This effect is through post-neonatal, rather than neonatal,
mortality, and is greater for children who have non-breastmilk food earlier.
- Using a third data source, rural children born in years and districts with more TSC latrines available in the first year of their lives are taller than children born in other years or districts, found using district and year fixed effects; as a placebo test, this is not true of urban children.
Date: March 23, 2012
Time: 11:30 A.M.
Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)
Location:
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Princeton University
Abstract:
The Total Sanitation Campaign built approximately one latrine per ten rural residents of India from 2001 to 2011. This paper uses an annual panel of disaggregated construction data, matched to several sources of household, village, and district data.
- Districts in which more latrines were constructed over this period saw a greater decline in rural infant mortality rates, controlling for other changes, a difference-indifferences result that is strengthened using heterogeneity in an incentive for local government compliance as an instrument for program intensity. This effect is not found for urban IMRs (urban infants were not exposed to the program), nor is a similar correlation with IMR found of district-level intensity of two other government programs from the 2000s.
- Individual data from another source finds a similar decline in infant mortality - quantitatively between the district-level differences and IV results - associated with the TSC latrines built by the first year of a child's life, found using district and year fixed effects and other controls. This effect is through post-neonatal, rather than neonatal,
mortality, and is greater for children who have non-breastmilk food earlier.
- Using a third data source, rural children born in years and districts with more TSC latrines available in the first year of their lives are taller than children born in other years or districts, found using district and year fixed effects; as a placebo test, this is not true of urban children.
Date: March 23, 2012
Time: 11:30 A.M.
Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)
Location:
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Monday, March 12, 2012
15-16 March 2012: 9th Research Meeting
Organised By: Macro/Finance group at NIPFP
Conference Program
Date: March 15 - 16, 2012
Time: 9 A.M. to 6 P.M.
Venue:
Magnolia Conference Room,
India Habitat Centre,
Lodhi Road,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
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Wednesday, March 7, 2012
15 March 2012: Information Technology and the Indian Economy
Jyoti Vig
University of Minnesota
Abstract:
This paper attempts to study the impact of information technology on explaining the structural features of the Indian economy such as an increasing share of services in GDP and an increase in contribution of services in the acceleration in output per worker since 1993-2004 (Bosworth and Collins 2008). Using a multi-sector framework with three final goods and one intermediate good (stylized as information technology) we ask if this framework can reproduce the above structural features.
Simulating greater absorption of IT in the economy (Jorgenson 2001) we observe that our benchmark model allows for a close fit of GDP and sector outputs for the period 1991 to 2003, however the model severally undershoots for the period thereafter. To mimic the impact of greater IT absorption in the domestic economy we apply a parametric experiment and call it the “Jorgenson Effect”. We ask whether this new economy can account for the sharp acceleration in GDP and sectoral outputs observed in the benchmark. Though we observe a closer fit of the data, the new economy still undershoots growth for the period 2003-2009.
Date: March 15, 2012
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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University of Minnesota
Abstract:
This paper attempts to study the impact of information technology on explaining the structural features of the Indian economy such as an increasing share of services in GDP and an increase in contribution of services in the acceleration in output per worker since 1993-2004 (Bosworth and Collins 2008). Using a multi-sector framework with three final goods and one intermediate good (stylized as information technology) we ask if this framework can reproduce the above structural features.
Simulating greater absorption of IT in the economy (Jorgenson 2001) we observe that our benchmark model allows for a close fit of GDP and sector outputs for the period 1991 to 2003, however the model severally undershoots for the period thereafter. To mimic the impact of greater IT absorption in the domestic economy we apply a parametric experiment and call it the “Jorgenson Effect”. We ask whether this new economy can account for the sharp acceleration in GDP and sectoral outputs observed in the benchmark. Though we observe a closer fit of the data, the new economy still undershoots growth for the period 2003-2009.
Date: March 15, 2012
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
AMEX Conference Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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