Piyusha Mutreja
Syracuse University
Abstract:
We embed a multi-sector, multi-country Ricardian model of trade into a
neoclassical growth framework. We argue that international trade in
capital goods is crucial to understand cross-country di?erences in
capital formation and in income per worker. In our sample of 86
countries in 2005, over 80 percent of capital goods production in the
world is concentrated in 9 countries; poor countries import most of
their capital goods. Barriers to capital goods trade result in a
misallocation of factors both within and across countries. We
calibrate the model to bilateral trade ?ows. Our model accounts for 82
percent of the observed log variance in capital stock per worker, 53
percent in income per worker and 84 percent in the relative price of
capital goods. Furthermore, the elasticity of the relative price of
capital goods with respect to income per worker is -0.51 in the model
and -0.47 in the data, while the elasticity of the price of
consumption is 0.42 in the model and 0.51 in the data. Shutting down
trade in capital goods forces poor countries to allocate productive
resources away from the sector of their comparative advantage, thereby
reducing capital stock formation as well as TFP. The welfare cost of
such a shut down is 25 percent for countries in the bottom decile of
the income distribution.
Date: May 16, 2011
Time: 11:30 A.M.
Venue:
Seminar Room 2,
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)
Location:
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Monday, May 16, 2011
16 May 2011: Decentralization, Local Governance, and Social Wellbeing in India: Do Local Governments Matter?
Rani D. Mullen
College of William & Mary in Virginia, USA
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, decentralization has been seen as the
means for allowing local governments to become more accountable, and
for encouraging the deepening of democracy and the building of village
communities. By drawing on original village-level case studies of six
villages in three different Indian states, this book presents a
systematic analysis of the impact of decentralization on the delivery
of social services at the local level within India.
Supplementing national and state-level data and analyzing the
different historical legacies in each state, the book argues that
decentralization is not simply a function of the structure of the
decentralization program or of the relationship between higher-tiered
and local government. Rather, the possibility of decentralization
affecting social outcomes depends on several interacting factors,
including the distribution of power among local elites, the dynamics
of political competition, and the level of civil society mobilization.
By examining constitutionally-mandated political decentralization
across India, this book identifies the circumstances under which local
government structures can lead to improved social services and
societal wellbeing, as well as presenting a major contribution to
studies on South Asian Politics and Local Government.
Date: May 16, 2011
Time: 11:30 A.M.
Venue:
Conference Hall,
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)
Location:
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College of William & Mary in Virginia, USA
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, decentralization has been seen as the
means for allowing local governments to become more accountable, and
for encouraging the deepening of democracy and the building of village
communities. By drawing on original village-level case studies of six
villages in three different Indian states, this book presents a
systematic analysis of the impact of decentralization on the delivery
of social services at the local level within India.
Supplementing national and state-level data and analyzing the
different historical legacies in each state, the book argues that
decentralization is not simply a function of the structure of the
decentralization program or of the relationship between higher-tiered
and local government. Rather, the possibility of decentralization
affecting social outcomes depends on several interacting factors,
including the distribution of power among local elites, the dynamics
of political competition, and the level of civil society mobilization.
By examining constitutionally-mandated political decentralization
across India, this book identifies the circumstances under which local
government structures can lead to improved social services and
societal wellbeing, as well as presenting a major contribution to
studies on South Asian Politics and Local Government.
Date: May 16, 2011
Time: 11:30 A.M.
Venue:
Conference Hall,
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)
Location:
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18 May 2011: Sri Lanka's Public Health Inspectors: Lessons for Low-Income Countries
Monica Das Gupta
World Bank
Abstract:
Sri Lanka has a low-cost and low-tech approach to reducing exposure to communicable diseases. This hinges on the use of Public Health Inspectors charged with inter alia assuring environmental sanitation, vector control, water safety and food safety, outbreak control, school health, and disease-specific programs. This seminar will focus on the strengths of this system, which has lessons for other low-income countries. It will also highlight organizational changes that would help these grassroots health staff function more effectively in Sri Lanka.
Date: May 18, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Note:
Please confirm attendance by mail to Jyoti Sriram at jsriram@worldbank.org by May 16
Location:
View Larger Map
World Bank
Abstract:
Sri Lanka has a low-cost and low-tech approach to reducing exposure to communicable diseases. This hinges on the use of Public Health Inspectors charged with inter alia assuring environmental sanitation, vector control, water safety and food safety, outbreak control, school health, and disease-specific programs. This seminar will focus on the strengths of this system, which has lessons for other low-income countries. It will also highlight organizational changes that would help these grassroots health staff function more effectively in Sri Lanka.
Date: May 18, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Note:
Please confirm attendance by mail to Jyoti Sriram at jsriram@worldbank.org by May 16
Location:
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Thursday, May 5, 2011
9 May 2011: Workfare in Low Income Countries: An Effective Way to Fight Poverty? The Case of India's NREGS
Shamika Ravi
ISB, Hyderabad and Microfinance Management Institute of the Open Society Institute, Washington
Abstract:
The paper analyses the impact of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) on rural households. In particular, it looks at the impact of the program on food security, savings and health outcomes using an initial baseline survey data of 1066 households and a subsequent panel data of 320 households from Andhra Pradesh. The panel consists of data from June 2007 to December 2008. The authors have calculated estimates based on propensity score matching, double difference and triple difference estimates to account for non-random attrition. The main results indicate that the NREGS improves food security, increases probability of holding savings and reduces anxiety level among low income households. They have looked at various sub-categories of monthly per capita consumption expenditure, and find that NREGS significantly increases monthly p.c. expenditure on food by 40 percent (Rs. 96.6) and increase p.c. expenditure on non-food consumables by 69 percent (Rs. 16.3). The program improves probability of holding savings by 9 percent and reduces incidence of depression and stress by 8 percent. The impact on food security is stronger for the poorest group.
Date: May 9, 2011
Time: 11:30 A.M.
Venue:
Conference Hall,
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
ISB, Hyderabad and Microfinance Management Institute of the Open Society Institute, Washington
Abstract:
The paper analyses the impact of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) on rural households. In particular, it looks at the impact of the program on food security, savings and health outcomes using an initial baseline survey data of 1066 households and a subsequent panel data of 320 households from Andhra Pradesh. The panel consists of data from June 2007 to December 2008. The authors have calculated estimates based on propensity score matching, double difference and triple difference estimates to account for non-random attrition. The main results indicate that the NREGS improves food security, increases probability of holding savings and reduces anxiety level among low income households. They have looked at various sub-categories of monthly per capita consumption expenditure, and find that NREGS significantly increases monthly p.c. expenditure on food by 40 percent (Rs. 96.6) and increase p.c. expenditure on non-food consumables by 69 percent (Rs. 16.3). The program improves probability of holding savings by 9 percent and reduces incidence of depression and stress by 8 percent. The impact on food security is stronger for the poorest group.
Date: May 9, 2011
Time: 11:30 A.M.
Venue:
Conference Hall,
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
21 April 2011: Efficient Estimation of Parameters in Marginals in Semipametric Multivariate Models
Valentyn Panchenko
University of New South Wales
Abstract:
Recent literature on semiparametric copula models focused on the
situation when the marginals are specified nonparametrically and the copula function is given a parametric form. For example, this setup is used in Chen, Fan and Tsyrennikov (2006) [Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models, JASA] who focus on efficient estimation of copula parameters. We consider a reverse situation when the marginals are specified parametrically and the copula function is modelled nonparametrically. This setting is no less relevant in applications. We use the method of sieve for efficient estimation of parameters in marginals and show its asymptotic distribution. Simulations suggest that the sieve MLE can be up to 40% more efficient relative to QMLE depending on the strength of dependence between marginals. An application using insurance company loss and expense data demonstrates empirical relevance of this setting.
Date: April 21, 2011
Time: 04:15 P.M.
Venue:
Seminar Room 2,
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
University of New South Wales
Abstract:
Recent literature on semiparametric copula models focused on the
situation when the marginals are specified nonparametrically and the copula function is given a parametric form. For example, this setup is used in Chen, Fan and Tsyrennikov (2006) [Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models, JASA] who focus on efficient estimation of copula parameters. We consider a reverse situation when the marginals are specified parametrically and the copula function is modelled nonparametrically. This setting is no less relevant in applications. We use the method of sieve for efficient estimation of parameters in marginals and show its asymptotic distribution. Simulations suggest that the sieve MLE can be up to 40% more efficient relative to QMLE depending on the strength of dependence between marginals. An application using insurance company loss and expense data demonstrates empirical relevance of this setting.
Date: April 21, 2011
Time: 04:15 P.M.
Venue:
Seminar Room 2,
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
28 April 2011: Public Financial Management Performance Assessment in India
Pratap Ranjan Jena
NIPFP
Abstract:
The presentation will be based on a study carried out at NIPFP in 2010, titled India: Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability -- Public Financial Management Performance Assessment Report. A brief write-up on the report is attached.
Date: April 28, 2011
Time: 03:30 P.M.
Venue:
Conference Room (1st Floor),
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
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NIPFP
Abstract:
The presentation will be based on a study carried out at NIPFP in 2010, titled India: Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability -- Public Financial Management Performance Assessment Report. A brief write-up on the report is attached.
Date: April 28, 2011
Time: 03:30 P.M.
Venue:
Conference Room (1st Floor),
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
29 April 2011: Changes in Monetary Policy and Credit Demand - Panel Data Analysis for India and Some Emerging Market Economies
B. L. Pandit
ICRIER
Abstract:
The impact of changes in policy rates on the demand for bank credit and thereby on the pace of economic activity in emerging market economies like India, is an interesting question. EMEs in the sample are Brazil, India, Chile, Korea, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey. The period of study is 2002-2010— the post reform period, preceded by extensive reforms in banking and the financial sector. Citing greater degree of uncertainty surrounding economic activity in developing countries, it has been argued that since changes in policy rates are incremental in nature, these would be rather ineffective in initiating any substantive changes in the real sector. The recent surge in global capital flows in open EMEs has added another challenge to the very existence of an independent monetary policy. This paper is a part of a larger research project about monetary policy in India and some other EMEs. The specific question we address in this first study is ,to examine, to what extent do changes in policy rates influence the credit demand in EMEs. Using data from the panel of seven EMEs, GLS estimates are obtained by using Fixed Effect and Random Effect models. In contrast to the general perception, our data analysis and econometric results suggest a close association between the policy rate and credit demand and this association runs through what can be called policy rate channel- a hybrid of the traditional “interest rate channel” and “credit channel”.
Date: April 29, 2011
Time: 10:00 A.M.
Venue:
ICRIER Conference Room,
Core 6A, 4th Floor,
India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road,
New Delhi – 110 003(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
ICRIER
Abstract:
The impact of changes in policy rates on the demand for bank credit and thereby on the pace of economic activity in emerging market economies like India, is an interesting question. EMEs in the sample are Brazil, India, Chile, Korea, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey. The period of study is 2002-2010— the post reform period, preceded by extensive reforms in banking and the financial sector. Citing greater degree of uncertainty surrounding economic activity in developing countries, it has been argued that since changes in policy rates are incremental in nature, these would be rather ineffective in initiating any substantive changes in the real sector. The recent surge in global capital flows in open EMEs has added another challenge to the very existence of an independent monetary policy. This paper is a part of a larger research project about monetary policy in India and some other EMEs. The specific question we address in this first study is ,to examine, to what extent do changes in policy rates influence the credit demand in EMEs. Using data from the panel of seven EMEs, GLS estimates are obtained by using Fixed Effect and Random Effect models. In contrast to the general perception, our data analysis and econometric results suggest a close association between the policy rate and credit demand and this association runs through what can be called policy rate channel- a hybrid of the traditional “interest rate channel” and “credit channel”.
Date: April 29, 2011
Time: 10:00 A.M.
Venue:
ICRIER Conference Room,
Core 6A, 4th Floor,
India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road,
New Delhi – 110 003(INDIA)
Location:
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