5 January 2017: Decomposition of Debt-GDP Ratio for United Kingdom:1984-2009

Piyali Das
Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Hyderabad

Abstract:
Most advanced nations today are witnessing a peacetime public debt surge that match post World War levels. This raises concerns about fiscal financing and liquidation of the stock of debt especially in the face of changing demographics. United Kingdom being one of the advanced nations with a high level of public debt and an aging population is facing similar issues of fiscal financing. This paper attempts to decompose the evolution in the debt-to-GDP ratio of UK between 1984-2009 into nominal returns, inflation, GDP growth rate, primary de ficit and the maturity structure of the debt. The results of the decomposition show that the government of UK inflated away part of the debt but most of the adjustments were due to low interest rates and changes in the primary deficit.

Date: January 5, 2017
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NIPFP Auditorium
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
For details: Please contact nipfp.seminar@nipfp.org.in

12 January 2017: Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

Thomas Laubach
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington DC

Abstract:
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies – Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. We find that large declines in trend GDP growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in all four economies. These country-by-country estimates are found to display a substantial amount of comovement over time, suggesting an important role for global factors in shaping trend growth and natural rates of interest.

Date: January 12, 2017
Time: 04:30 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall, Ground Floor
R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation at bins.sebastian@nipfp.org.in

13 December 2016: An Update on Air Quality

Sunita Narain
Centre for Science and Environment

Moderator: Isher Judge Ahluwalia, ICRIER

Date: December 13, 2016
Time: 07:00 P.M.

Venue:
Gulmohar Hall, Gate No. 3
India Habitat Centre
Lodi Road,
New Delhi – 110 003(INDIA)

Location:

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13 December 2016: Seminar on "Emerging Issues in State Finances Post – Fourteenth Finance Commission – Analysis of State Budgets 2016-17"

Organised by:
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

[Programme]

Date: December 13, 2016
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall No. 2,
India International Centre,
Main Building, 40, Max Mueller Marg,
New Delhi - 110003.

Location:

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Note:
By invitation. RSVP: Dr. Manish Gupta, manish.gupta@nipfp.org.in

13 December 2016: Revisiting Decoupling and Recoupling of BRIC Stock Markets with U.S. and Eurozone

Divya Tuteja
Delhi School of Economics

Abstract:
It has been well-documented in the literature that recent crises have led to large fluctuations in financial markets around the world. In this background, the objective of this paper is to assess decoupling vs recoupling of BRIC stock markets with the U.S. and Eurozone stock markets in the post 2000 period. We first, estimate the time-varying conditional correlation of the BRIC stock markets with the U.S. and Eurozone stock markets using a DCC-GARCH model. Thereafter, we identify regimes in the correlations using the Bai and Perron (2003) algorithm for endogenous selection of break dates. We study the behaviour of the conditional correlations during various identified phases with emphasis on the recent crises in the West. Finally, we test for a change in causal links among the markets across the regimes.

Date: December 13, 2016
Time: 11:30 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room No. 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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19 December 2016: Cities and Flooding: The State of the Art

Abhas K Jha
World Bank

Abstract:
Most major cities (ranging from Mumbai, Chennai, Sao Paolo, Hanoi, HCM City, Beijing, Shanghai, Jakarta etc.) of the world have been hit hard over the past few years with severe flooding events. What should policy makers do? The talk will explore options for forward-looking operational assistance to policy makers and technical specialists in the rapidly expanding cities and towns of the developing world on how best to manage the risk of floods. It will take a strategic approach, in which appropriate risk management measures are assessed, selected and integrated in a process that both informs and involves the full range of stakeholders.

Date: December 19, 2016
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
RSVP to sci-fi@cprindia.org

Cancelled due to public holiday - 12 December 2016: Innovations in Monetary Policy for Financial Inclusion: The Bangladesh Experience

Atiur Rahman
Former Governor, Central Bank of Bangladesh

Date: December 12, 2016
Time: 04:30 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall, Ground Floor
R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

9 December 2016: Integration Among US Banks: Trends and Determinants

Abhinav Anand
University College Dublin

Abstract:
We study integration among a large sample of 1109 US banks over a quarter-century: 19902014. We define a banks level of integration (measured in percentages) as the degree of dependence of its stock returns on common national banking factors. We show that the median US banks integration has risen from 4.4% in 1990 to 10.1% in 2014. Integration across banks is highly unevenly distributed, obeys a power law and for the median systemically important bank, corresponding integration levels are 610 times higher. The US banking sector is segmented into a small group of core banks, strongly integrated with each other; and a large group of weakly integrated banks in the periphery. Determinants of US banks integration include bank size, its market beta and its idiosyncratic risk, which have a significantly positive marginal impact; while increased reliance on deposit financing and short term financing have a significantly negative marginal impact on integration.

Date: December 9, 2016
Time: 11:30 A.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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