9 December 2014: Fiscal Space and Budget Management

Richard Hemming
Duke Center for International Development

Date: December 9, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
Auditorium, Ground Floor, Old Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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20 November 2014: Credit Access and the Poor

Abhijit Banerjee
MIT

Date: November 20, 2014
Time: 10:30 A.M.

Venue:
Economics Lecture Theatre
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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13 November 2014: Can the Major Public Works Policy Buffer Negative Shocks in Early Childhood?

Aparajita Dasgupta
Population Council

Abstract:
The study examines the role of the largest public works program in the world-the National Rural  Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) – in buffering the negative effects of early childhood exposure to rainfall shocks on long-term health outcomes. Exploiting the spatial and temporal variation in NREGS coverage, the study estimates the extent to which nutritional shocks in early childhood can be offset by access to the policy. The study employs a unique identification  strategy by integrating detailed administrative records of drought shock and phase-wise roll-out information of NREGS with a household level panel data-the Young Lives survey- conducted over three waves (2002, 2007 and 2009 -10) in the state of Andhra Pradesh, India. Using individual fixed effects estimation the study finds that while the policy does not help correct for long term past health deficiencies it is useful in buffering recent drought shocks, which varies by policy relevant sub-groups. 

Date: November 13, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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12 November 2014: State Spatial Rescaling in India Subnational States and the Politics of Economic Restructuring

Loraine Kennedy
Centre for South Asian Studies, Paris and Centre for Social Science and Humanities, New Delhi

Abstract:
State re-scaling is the central concept mobilized in Loraine Kennedy’s new book to interpret the political processes that are producing new economic spaces in India. In the quarter century since economic reforms were introduced, the Indian economy has experienced strong growth accompanied by extensive sectoral and spatial restructuring. The book argues that in this reformed institutional context, where both state spaces and economic geographies are being rescaled, subnational states play an increasingly critical role in coordinating socioeconomic activities.

The core thesis is that the reform process has profoundly reconfigured the Indian state’s rapport with its territory at all spatial scales, and these processes of state spatial rescaling are crucial for comprehending emerging patterns of economic governance and growth. It demonstrates that the outcomes of India’s new policy regime are not only the product of impersonal market forces, but that they are also the result of endogenous political strategies, acting in conjunction with the territorial reorganisation of economic activities at various scales, ranging from local to global. Extensive empirical case material, primarily from field-based research, is used to support the book’s theoretical assertions.

Loraine Kennedy will present the book’s main arguments and elaborate on several case studies that form the empirical basis of her thesis, including the implementation of the SEZ policy in Haryana, the use of spatial engineering instruments in Andhra Pradesh and industrial estate development in Tamil Nadu.

Date: November 12, 2014
Time: 05:00 P.M.

Venue:
CSH library,
2 Aurangzeb Road,
New Delhi – 110011

Location:

16 October 2014: Does access to NREGA mitigate negative impacts of early childhood shocks? Evidence from Andhra Pradesh, India

Aparajita Dasgupt
Population Council

Date: October 16, 2014
Time: 02:30 P.M.

Venue:
Mezzanine Floor,
Akbar Bhawan,
Satya Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi-110021(India)

Location:

14 October 2014: What Was Indian Planning? Observations from the International History of Nehruvian Planning

David C Engerman
Brandeis University

Date: October 14, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Committee Room
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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18 September 2014: Revealed Preference for Open Defecation: Evidence from a New Survey in Rural North India

Dean Spears
Rice Institute and Centre for Development Economics

Abstract:
Despite economic growth, government latrine construction, and increasing recognition among policy-makers that it constitutes a health and human capital crisis, open defecation remains stubbornly widespread in rural India. Indeed, 67% of rural Indian households in the 2011 census reported defecating in the open. We present evidence from new survey data collected in villages in five states in India: Bihar, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. We find that rural households do not build inexpensive latrines of the sort that commonly reduce open defecation and save lives in Bangladesh, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Many survey respondents‘ behaviour reveals a preference for open defecation: over 40% of households with a working latrine have at least one member who defecates in the open. In the sample from the four largest states, more than half of people in households which own a government latrine defecate in the open. We apply a demographic model of latrine use which predicts that if the government were to build a latrine for every rural household that lacks one, without changing sanitation preferences, most people in our sample in these states would nevertheless defecate in the open. Further evidence supports a preference for open defecation: many survey respondents report that open defecation is more pleasurable and desirable than latrine use. Among people who defecate in the open, a majority report that widespread open defecation would be at least as good for child health as latrine use by everyone in the village. These findings suggest that intensifying existing policies of latrine construction will not be enough to substantially reduce open defecation. Policy-makers in India must lead a large scale campaign to promote latrine use.

Date: September 18, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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4 September 2014: Monks, Gents and Industrialists: The Long Run Impact of the Dissolution of the English Monasteries

Sebastian Vollmer
University of Goettingen

Abstract:
In this paper we undertake an investigation of the long-run economic impact of the dissolution of the English monasteries by Henry VIII in the 1530s. This event is plausibly linked to the ”rise of the gentry”, the commercialization of agriculture and political and economic change in early modern England potentially facilitating its precocious industrialization. To measure the dissolution we digitized the Valor Ecclesiasticus, the census Henry commissioned of monastic incomes in 1534 and use monastic income at the parish level from the Valor as a measure of the local impact of the dissolution. We show that parishes which the dissolution impacted more were more likely to have a textile mill in 1838, tended to have more mills and greater mill employment. We also show that they tended to have a lower proportion of their labor force in agriculture in 1831 and a higher proportion in retail trade. In addition we demonstrate that parishes where the dissolution had a greater impact had more gentry in 1700, were more likely to have land enclosed by parliament and had more innovative agriculture as measured by patents. We show these results are robust to controlling for many other potential determinants of the location and extent of industry and for a variety of strategies for accounting for unobservables. The results are consistent with Tawney’s famous thesis of the ”rise of the gentry” but extend it by making the link between social change and the industrial revolution.

Date: September 4, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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5th September 2014: Fertility Limits on Local Politicians in India

Abhishek Chakravarty
University of Essex

Abstract:
We examine the demographic implications of fertility limits on local politicians. Several Indian states disbar individuals with more than two children from contesting Panchayat and municipal elections. These two-child limits are intended to decrease fertility among the constituents through a role-model effect and by incentivizing individuals who intend to run for elections in the future to plan smaller families. We find that fertility limits on elected representatives decrease voters fertility. However, they also increase the sex ratio at birth, especially in states and for socioeconomic groups with a stronger preference for sons. We show that households are willing to give up higher order births to remain eligible for political office, but only if they have the desired number of sons. Our results point towards a novel source of demographic influence: political leaders.

Date: September 5, 2014
Time: 11:30 A.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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14 August 2014: Misallocation, Internal Trade, and the Role of Transportation Infrastructure

Jose Asturias
Georgetown University

Abstract:
In this paper, we quantify the welfare impact of the construction of the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) in India. To do so, we extend the endogenous variable markups trade model of Atkeson and Burstein (2008) into a multi-region setting in which asymmetric states trade with each other. To estimate key parameters of the model, we use a rich micro-level dataset constructed from manufacturing and geospatial data. We then simulate the improvement in road quality consistent with the construction of the GQ. We find aggregate gains of 2.15% for all of India. We also decompose these gains into Ricardian and pro-competitive components. Lastly, we find that welfare effects vary substantially across states, including negative welfare impacts for some states far away from the GQ.

Date: August 14, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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8th August 2014: Misallocation, Internal Trade, and the Role of Transportation Infrastructure

Jose Asturias
School of Foreign Service in Qatar, Georgetown University

Abstract:
In this paper, we quantify the welfare impact of the construction of the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) in India. To do so, we extend the endogenous variable markups trade model of Atkeson and Burstein (2008) into a multi-region setting in which asymmetric states trade with each other. To estimate key parameters of the model, we use a rich micro-level dataset constructed from manufacturing and geospatial data. We then simulate the improvement in road quality consistent with the construction of the GQ. We find aggregate gains of 2.15% for all of India. We also decompose these gains into Ricardian and pro-competitive components. Lastly, we find that welfare effects vary substantially across states, including negative welfare impacts for some states far away from the GQ.

Date: August 8, 2014
Time: 11:30 A.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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7 August 2014: The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries

Sanket Mohapatra
The World Bank

Abstract:
Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks in high-income countries led by the U.S Fed embarked on unprecedented monetary policy easing. These quantitative easing (QE) policies more than quadrupled the U.S Fed’s balance sheet within a short span of five years. Sanket will discuss the implications of QE for financial flows to developing countries, finding evidence for potential transmission along observable liquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels—as well as additional effects over and above these observable channels. He will also discuss the different impact of QE on different types of flows: portfolio (especially bond) flows tended to be significantly more sensitive than foreign direct investment. Mohapatra will also present simulations to explore the potential effects of QE withdrawal on financial flows to developing countries.

Date: August 7, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please join us for tea and hot snacks after the seminar. For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

28 July 2014: Short-term Migration and Rural Workfare Programs: Evidence from India

Clement Imbert
Oxford University

Abstract:
We study the effect of a large rural workfare program on short-term migration from rural to urban areas of India. Using cross-state variation in public employment provision for identification, we find that participation to the program significantly reduces short-term migration. We next use survey data from a high out migration area to estimate a structural model of migration decisions which suggests that the costs of migration may be as high as 60% of daily earnings outside of the village. Finally, we use nationally representative data to estimate the impact of the program on urban labor markets and find that wages increase in urban centers which rely on migration from rural districts where more public employment is provided.

Date: July 28, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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22 July 2014: Capital Market Financing, Firm Growth, and Firm Size Distribution: Evidence from China, India, and the Rest of the World

Sergio Schmukler
The World Bank, Washington DC

Date: July 22, 2014
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall (Classroom), Ground Floor, R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation to Ms. Suhasini Prasad at suhasini.prasad@nipfp.org.in latest by Tuesday, 21st July 2014

9 July 2014: Democracy and Expertise

Robert C. Post
Yale Law School

Date: July 9, 2014
Time: 11:30 A.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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26 June 2014: Revealed preference for open defecation: Evidence from a new survey in rural north India

Dean Spears
Research Institute for Compassionate Economics (RICE)

Abstract:
The paper summarizes the survey results. One key finding is that open defecation is very common even among people who live in households with latrines, so programs that hope to eliminate open defecation must move beyond latrine construction to promoting behaviour change.

Date: June 26, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI)
Plot No. 47, Sector 44,
Institutional Area,
Gurgaon – 122002, Haryana (INDIA)

Location:

30 June 2014: Innovations in Data Collection: The Chitwan Valley Family Study in Nepal

Dirgha Ghimire
University of Michigan and ISER-Nepal

Abstract:
The Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) is an 18-year old, multi-level, panel study of communities, households, and individuals based on multi-mode, mixed-methods data collection built around cutting-edge, computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) and mobile phone technologies. CVFS serves as a unique laboratory based at ISER-N for interdisciplinary social and economic research in the heterogeneous, high-mobility setting of the Chitwan Valley in Nepal’s Inner Terai region. CVFS investigates the impact of this rapidly changing context on family formation using a combination of ethnographic, archival, geo-spatial, and survey methods. CVFS tracks domestic and international migrants and provides continuous measurement of community change going back seven decades and backed by 17 years of monthly demographic event data. CVFS data are available through ICPSR, the Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research at Michigan, www.icpsr.umich.edu.

Dr Ghimire will discuss CVFS design and its evolution, including tracking respondents over time and space and the use of innovative life history calendars for data collection using multi-level retrospective histories and measurements between panels. He will describe how CAPI makes it possible to collect high-quality panel data in less-than ideal field conditions but with active, real-time survey management at ISER-N and Michigan.

As panel studies around the world have shown, understanding the consequences of rapid social, economic, and environmental change for policy design, implementation and monitoring has become critical in all settings. Dr Ghimire will explore how the innovative design and execution of CVFS can be useful for similar cultural settings, such as in India.

Date: June 30, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please join us for tea after the seminar. For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

16 June 2014: Kinky Development: Fun, but not Productive

Lant Pritchett
Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University

Date: June 16, 2014
Time: 05:00 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall (Classroom), Ground Floor, R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation to Ms. Suhasini Prasad at suhasini.prasad@nipfp.org.in latest by 15th June 2014

13 June 2014: What can an experiment in Maharashtra tell policymakers about the impact of sanitation on child height?

Dean Spears
Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics

Abstract:
Most of the world's open defecation happens in India. Open defecation releases germs into the environment, where children come into contact with them. What is the effect of these environmental diseases? This paper discusses a specific randomised sanitation experiment, conducted by the World Bank and the Government of Maharashtra in 2004 and considers the broader applicability of this evidence.

The evidence from this study suggests that reducing open defecation helps children grow taller – which is consistent with converging experimental and quasi-experimental evidence of the effect of sanitation on child height from a variety of sources. But in this case, the experiment was not ultimately carried out in all selected districts, although data were collected. This allows for a comparison between the two, which is particularly valuable because the final sites had the highest human development indicators. This raises the question of external validity and whether we would expect a similar sanitation experiment to yield similar results in areas with a lower human development baseline.

We believe that sanitation does indeed foster child growth, a proxy of overall child health. However, this study should encourage broader reflection on the external validity of randomised evaluations. We need to ask whether the pool of experimental data we have is influenced by site selection bias, as an experiment requires a high-capacity organisation willing and able to carry out research and implementation. If so, what are the precautions that need to be taken when making policy recommendations based on experimental evidence?

Date: June 13, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room, Ground Floor
ISID Complex, Plot No. 4
Vasant Kunj Institutional Area
New Delhi- 110 070(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please register here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/delhi-seminar-series-tickets-11852973563
Watch the seminar live at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQC6rJVd15Y

9 June 2014: India's Clinical Establishment Act 2010: Overview, Status & Implications for Health Insurance

Sunil Nandraj,
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India and Public Health Foundation of India

Abstract:
The Clinical Establishments (Registration and Regulation) Act, 2010 was enacted by the Central Government registration and regulation of all clinical establishments in the country, to prescribe the minimum standards of facilities and services provided by them. The implementation of this legislation is closely interlinked with effective delivery of health insurance schemes such as Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY). For the seminar, Sunil Nandraj will present his findings on the Act and its implications for social health insurance in India.

Date: June 9, 2014
Time: 04:30 P.M.

Venue:
GIZ Conference Room,
21, Jor Bagh,
New Delhi 110 003(INDIA)

Note:
RSVP: igssp@giz.de.

11 June 2014: Inflation Target at The Zero Lower Bound

Siddhartha Chattopadhyay
IIT Kharagpur

Abstract:
We propose that, the monetary authority adopt the inflation target as a time varying policy instrument at the zero lower bound (ZLB) with the same zeal with which they have adopted a fixed inflation target away from the ZLB. Specifically, after an extreme adverse shock reduces demand, the monetary authority promises future inflation by raising the inflation target in the Taylor Rule and announcing its persistence over time. The loss under our proposed policy is very similar to that under optimal monetary policy with the advantage that it is communicable using the language of the inflation target and implementable using the Taylor Rule. We also show that the inflation target and its persistence could be raised high enough to keep the economy away from the ZLB, but welfare costs are large.

Date: June 11, 2014
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall (Classroom), Ground Floor, R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation to Ms. Suhasini Prasad at suhasini.prasad@nipfp.org.in latest by Tuesday, 10th June 2014

2 June 2014: Inflation Volatility: How Much More Costly is it for Developing Countries?

Shesadri Banerjee
NCAER

Abstract:
Scholars and policymakers have unanimously recognized the adverse economic and welfare consequences of inflation. However, relatively less attention is given to inflation volatility and its consequences. Inflation episodes are often more volatile (i.e. inflation fluctuates a lot) in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) as compared to advanced countries. This stylized fact raises the question of how costly is it for the EMDEs, such as India, when they suffer such greater volatility of inflation. This paper evaluates the welfare consequence of high inflation volatility by measuring the resulting loss of output. It shows that developing countries incur far greater loss of GDP—nearly twice—than advanced countries as a result of the high volatility of inflation. This finding re-emphasizes the importance of inflation targeting in the monetary policy frameworks of EMDEs, not dissimilar to the recent approach adopted by the Reserve Bank of India.

Date: June 2, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please join us for tea after the seminar. For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

27 May 2014: Cashless and Paperless Field Enrollments by Low Income Individuals

Gautam Bhardwaj
Invest India Micro Pension Services and
Nitin Chaudhary
Micro Pension Foundation

Abstract:
The majority of India's low income informal sector workers do not have bank accounts nor access to a secure micro-payment mechanism. This imposes several important constraints and risks in delivering long-term, contributions-based pension, insurance and micro-savings products to the millions of excluded poor.

Also, the poor face significant challenges in providing valid ID documents prescribed by financial regulators while enrolling for formal financial products. This is often a result of insufficient or outdated identity documentation due to migration and other reasons. The problem of stringent KYC requirements is further exacerbated by a lengthy application and verification procedure involving the collection of multiple photographs and application forms along with physical verification of each application form against KYC documents. This causes significant cost and time overheads in processing individual “micro-pension” applications.

The microPension-VISA Inclusion Lab has developed and field-tested an integrated solution that enables on-the-spot, cashless and paperless enrollments using eKYC and bank-issued prepaid cards in collaboration with the UIDAI and VISA. Gautam Bhardwaj from IIMPS and Nitin Chaudhary from the microPension-VISA Lab will briefly present the context and the solution at a seminar at NIPFP. The presentation will be followed by a live enrollment for NPS-Lite and UTI-RBPF to demonstrate the solution.

Date: May 27, 2014
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall (Classroom), Ground Floor, R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation to Ms. Suhasini Prasad at suhasini.prasad@nipfp.org.in latest by Monday, 26th May 2014.

Location:

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3 June 2014: Workshop on Theory of Regression Discontinuity Designs, illustrated with a few empirical examples by Mr. Matthieu Stigler

Organised by:
Macro/Finance Group

Program Schedule

Date: June 3, 2014
Time: 09:15 A.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall (Classroom), Ground Floor, R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation to Ms. Suhasini Prasad at suhasini.prasad@nipfp.org.in latest by Friday, 30th May 2014. Participants are expected to bring their own laptop running ‘R’ in order to participate in the second session.

Suggested readings
Imbens GW, Lemieux T (2008). “Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice.” Journal of Econometrics, 142(2), 615–635.

Lee DS (2008). “Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections.”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(2), 675–697.

Location:

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23 May 2014: Can MGNREGS buffer negative shocks in early childhood? Evidence from Andhra Pradesh

Aparajita Dasgupta
Population Council, New Delhi

Abstract:
This study examines the role of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) in buffering the negative effects of early childhood exposure to rainfall shocks on long-term health outcomes. Exploiting the spatial and temporal variation in MGNREGS coverage, the study estimates the extent to which nutritional shocks in early childhood can be offset by access to the programme. The study employs a unique identification strategy by integrating detailed administrative records of drought shock and MGNREGS phase-wise roll-out information with a household level panel data from the Young Lives survey, which was conducted over three waves (2002, 2007 and 2009-10) in the state of Andhra Pradesh.

The study finds that while MGNREGS does not help correct long-term past health deficiencies, it is useful in buffering recent drought shocks, which varies by policy-relevant sub-groups. An increase in 22 working days per household increases height-for-age by around 0.26 standard deviations, which is bridging about half the rural-urban gap in average height-for-age score. The programme is most effective for the case of lower educated households and scheduled castes, that are presumably more vulnerable in the face of climatic variability. Hence, there is much room to reap in the indirect benefits of the programme by ensuring food security needs of these households.

Date: May 23, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room, Ground Floor
ISID Complex, Plot No. 4
Vasant Kunj Institutional Area
New Delhi- 110 070(INDIA)

Location:

View ISID Complex in a larger map

Note:
Please register here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/delhi-seminar-series-may-tickets-11568845729
Watch the seminar live at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPxgz9b6RB0

23 May 2014: Why So Few Women in Politics? Evidence from India

Mudit Kapoor
Indian School of Business, Hyderabad

Abstract:
Women remain severely under-represented in political institutions across the world. The International Political Science Association reports that as of January 2013 women representatives accounted for just over 20 percent of all parliamentarians in the world. Set against the just-completed largest election in the world in India, it is useful to ask why are there so few female representatives in political positions relative to their share in the population and electoral rolls? The gap between men and women has narrowed least in political representation when compared to the gaps in education, legal rights and economic opportunities. Despite the magnitude of the problem, there is little definitive understanding of the factors that might be causing this. Mudit Kapoor will discuss a recent study for India, done jointly with Shamika Ravi, on women as political candidates in a representative democracy. The study analyzes data from 50 years of assembly elections at the constituency level from the states of India.

Date: May 23, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)

Note:
Please join us for tea after the seminar. For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

Location:

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23 May 2014: How to Look at Education Data in India

Varsha Joshi
Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India

Date: May 23, 2014
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Centre for Civil Society,
A-69 Hauz Khas,
New Delhi-110016(INDIA)

Note:
Please RSVP to Manasi Bose (manasi@ccs.in | +91 98107 72964). Due to space limitations, this is an invitation-only event.

Location:

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2 May 2014: Why So Few Women in Politics? Evidence from India

Shamika Ravi
Brookings Institution India Center and Indian School of Business

Abstract:
This paper analyzes women as political candidates in a representative democracy. Using 50 years of assembly elections data at the constituency level from the Indian states, the authors show that women are more likely to contest elections in those constituencies where gender ratio of the electors is less in favor of women. For example, women are more likely to contest elections in backward states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh where the gender ratio of electors is in favor of men than in socially developed states like Kerala where the gender ratio of electors is more in favor of women. The authors present a citizen candidates model of representative democracy and show that empirical results are consistent with the theoretical predict ions of this model. These results challenge existing policy of random reservation of seats for women.

Date: May 2, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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25 April 2014: Food Inflation: The Role of Monetary Policy in India

Rahul Anand and Volodymyr Tulin
International Monetary Fund

Abstract:
Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. The paper estimates the size of second-round effects using a general equilibrium model of the Indian economy, which incorporates passthrough from headline inflation to core inflation. The results indicate that India's inflation is highly inertial and persistent. Due to second-round effects, the gap between headline inflation and core inflation decreases by about three fourths within one year as core inflation catches up with headline inflation. Large second-round effects stem from several factors, such as the high share of food in household expenditure and the role of food inflation in informing inflation expectations and wage setting. In order to durably reduce inflation, the monetary policy stance needs to be tightened. Analysis suggests that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may need to maintain a tight monetary policy stance for a prolonged period of time. In addition, progress on structural reforms to raise potential growth is critical to reduce the burden on monetary policy.

Date: April 25, 2014
Time: 11:30 A.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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17 April 2014: Spatial Distribution of Economic Activities and Commuting by Workers in Rural and Urban India

S. Chandrashekhar
IGIDR

Abstract:
Unlike migration, scant attention has been paid to the phenomenon of commuting by workers in developing countries. This paper fills this gap by using a nationally representative data set from India to analyze factors that affect the decision of workers to commute across rural and urban areas daily. Results suggest that regions with large peripheral urban areas or concentration of secondary sector jobs are more likely to have commuting workers. Regional rural and urban unemployment rates and rural-urban wage differentials are important push and pull factors in the decision to commute.

To show why commuting matters, the authors establish differences in monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE), food consumption patterns, and dietary diversity across three mutually exclusive types of households: where all members work in rural areas, at least one member commutes to urban areas, or at least one member has no fixed place of work. The paper finds that as compared to households with no commuters, households with rural-urban commuters have higher MPCE and dietary diversity; whereas households with no fixed place workers have lower MPCE and dietary diversity. The paper also establishes differences in the above mentioned indicators across households which differ by their primary source of income.

Date: April 17, 2014
Time: 12:30 P.M.

Venue:
2nd Floor Conference Room
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please confirm your attendance by email to Shilpi Gupta (sgupta11@worldbank.org) by Wednesday, April 16th.

7 April 2014: Is Outward FDI from Developing Countries a 'Good Thing'? Policy Implications for Home Countries

Rajneesh Narula
University of Reading, UK

Abstract:
A number of developing countries – such as India – have seen a growth in outward FDI by domestic multinational enterprises over the last two decades. A number of home countries (both developing and developed) have sought to encourage and promote such activity, arguing that such firms reflect their competitiveness and shifting comparative advantage. Other countries have reacted with alarm at outward FDI activity, feeling that it represents a ‘hollowing out’ of domestic assets, signalling a decline in their competitiveness. Professor Narula contends that both can be true simultaneously, especially in those countries that have a ‘‘Lewisian’’ dual economy, such as India. There are costs and benefits associated with outward FDI. Professor Narula argues that there is a greater likelihood that such investments will prove to be capital flight rather than opportunities for domestic upgrading, when generic approaches are applied.

Date: April 7, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please join us for tea after the seminar. For queries, please contact Ms. Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

24 April 2014: Role of Business in Improving Cities– The Experience of City Connect

V. Ravichandar
Feedback Consulting

Date: April 24, 2014
Time: 07:00 P.M.

Venue:
Gulmohar Hall,
India Habitat Centre
Lodi Road,
New Delhi – 110 003(INDIA)

Location:

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4 April 2014: Sanitation and health externalities: Resolving the Muslim mortality paradox

Dean Spears
CDE, ISI, Delhi

Abstract:
In India, Muslims face significantly lower child mortality rates than Hindus, despite Muslim parents being poorer and less educated on average. Because observable characteristics would predict a Muslim disadvantage relative to Hindus, previous studies documenting this robust and persistent pattern have called it a \puzzle" of Muslim mortality. This paper offers a simple solution to the puzzle in the form of an important sanitation externality. Most of India's population defecates in the open, without the use of toilets or latrines, spreading fecal pathogens that can make children ill. Hindus are 40% more likely than Muslims to do so, and we show that this one difference in sanitation can fully account for the large (18%) child mortality gap between Hindus and Muslims. Building on our finding that religion predicts infant and child mortality only through its association with latrine use, we show that latrine use constitutes an externality rather than a pure private gain: It is the open defecation of one's neighbors, rather than the household's own practice, that matters most for child survival. The gradient and mechanism we uncover have important implications for child health and mortality worldwide, since 15% of the world's population defecates in the open. To put the results in context, we find that moving from a locality where everybody defecates in the open to a locality where nobody defecates in the open is associated with a larger difference in child mortality than moving from the bottom quintile of asset wealth to the top quintile of asset wealth.

Date: April 4, 2014
Time: 11:30 A.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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2 April 2014: Building State Capacity for Better Program Implementation: Evidence from Biometric Smartcards in India

Karthik Muralidharan
University of California, San Diego

Abstract:
In this lecture organised by NCAER, Karthik Muralidharan will present results from a path-breaking three-year study, done jointly with Paul Niehaus (UCSD) and Sandip Sukhtankar (Dartmouth), on the impact of using biometrically-authenticated Smartcards to make payments to NREGS and Pension beneficiaries in Andhra Pradesh. Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission will be the Chief Guest at the lecture and lead the discussion.

Social protection programs in India are often plagued with leakage and corruption, and beneficiaries often face several challenges in accessing payments. One of the most promising attempts to increase state capacity to effectively implement programs is India’s ambitious initiative to provide all residents with a biometrically-authenticated Aadhar number linked to bank accounts, which can be used to directly transfer benefits. While this is a promising initiative, skeptics have raised several concerns including implementation challenges, subversion by vested interests, exclusion errors, and cost effectiveness.

The Andhra Pradesh Smartcard Program used biometrically-authenticated Smartcards to make payments under NREGS and Social Security Pensions and was a functional pre-cursor to the integration of Aadhar with these programs. Prof. Muralidharan will present results from a large-scale, scientifically rigorous, randomized impact evaluation of the AP Smartcard program on beneficiary experiences and leakage. The study finds that the new technology delivered a faster, more predictable, and less corrupt payments process that was also highly cost-effective (in spite of several implementation challenges). The results suggest that investing in secure authentication and payment infrastructure can significantly enhance “state capacity” to effectively implement a broad range of programs.

Date: April 2, 2014
Time: 05:30 P.M.

Venue:
Multi-Purpose Hall
India International Centre (New Wing),
Max Mueller Marg, Lodi Estate,
New Delhi - 110 003

Note:
Participation by Invitation only.
For queries contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

Location:

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31 March 2014: The Economics and the Econometrics of Human Development

James J. Heckman
University of Chicago, USA

Date: March 31, 2014
Time: 05:30 P.M.

Venue:
Sri Ramakrishna Hall,
Institute of Economic Growth,
University of Delhi Enclave,
North Campus,
Delhi–110007(INDIA)

Note:
Please join us for High Tea at 5:00 p.m.
RSVP: Dr. S.K. Sen - E-mail:sushil@iegindia.org, Ph:9810184203

Location:

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28 March 2014: The Value of Investing in Early Childhood Development

James J. Heckman
University of Chicago

Date: March 28, 2014
Time: 08:30 A.M.

Venue:
The Taj Palace (Roshnara Hall),
Diplomatic Enclave,
2, Sardar Patel Marg, IB Colony,
Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please RSVP to Samta Arora (samta@ccs.in | +91 99538 27773) by Wednesday 19 March. Due to space limitations, this is an invitation-only event.

20 March 2014: Friend or foe or family? A tale of formal and informal plants in India

Gunjan Sharma
World Bank

Abstract:
This paper examines the interaction between formal (organized) and informal (unorganized) plants in the manufacturing sector in India. How has the size and productivity of the plants in the organized sector affected the plants in the unorganized sector? How have informal plants affected formal plants? Are the magnitudes of the effects symmetric in either direction? The evidence shows that there are positive horizontal and vertical spillovers in each direction. Informal firms are an important supplier of inputs to formal firms. Employment and output in the organized sector is greater in those states in India that have a greater presence of unorganized suppliers of inputs. Conversely, unorganized employment and output are greater in states that have a greater presence of organized buyers of inputs. But there are two important asymmetries in the relationship between the organized and unorganized sectors. First, the unorganized sector is much more dependent on and responsive to organized sector presence than vice versa. Second, unorganized sector productivity is dependent on and responsive to organized sector productivity and presence but the reverse is not true.

Date: March 20, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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10 March 2014: Making Agriculture work for Nutrition: Getting Policies Right

Prabhu Pingali
Cornell University and Tata-Cornell Agriculture and Nutrition Initiative

Date: March 10, 2014
Time: 05:30 P.M.

Venue:
Sri Ramakrishna Hall,
Institute of Economic Growth,
University of Delhi Enclave,
North Campus,
Delhi–110007(INDIA)

Note:
Please join us for High Tea at 5:00 p.m.
RSVP: Dr. S.K. Sen - E-mail:sushil@iegindia.org, Ph:9810184203

Location:

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13-14 March 2014: 12th Research Meeting of NIPFP-DEA Research Program

Organised By: Macro/Finance Group at NIPFP

Conference Program

Date: March 13 - 14, 2014
Time: 9 A.M. to 6 P.M.

Venue:
Magnolia Conference Room,
India Habitat Centre,
Lodhi Road,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)

Location:

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10 March 2014: 8th Sir John Crawford Lecture on “Australia’s economic reform story and how it has yielded twenty-two consecutive years of growth in Australia”

Gary Banks AO
Australia and New Zealand School of Government

Hosted by:
Australian High Commission

Date: March 10, 2014
Time: 06:30 P.M.

Venue:
The Residence,
Gate No 5,
Australian High Commission,
1/50 G, Shantipath, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi 110021(INDIA)

Note:
R.S.V.P. crawfordlecture2014@gmail.com
(please carry your photo id)

Location:

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6 March 2014: Transition and The Middle Income Trap: Lessons from Eastern Europe

Erik Berglof
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Date: March 6, 2014
Time: 04:30 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall, Ground Floor, R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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10 March 2014: The Burden of Disease from Household Air Pollution in India

Kirk Smith
University of California, Berkeley

Date: March 10, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Lecture Theatre
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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26 February 2014: Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown

Rahul Anand & Volodymyr Tulin
International Monetary Fund

Abstract:
Anand and Tulin will report on their recent research on the investment slowdown in India and explore its underlying causes. India’s sharp deceleration in investment has sparked a debate about the role of interest rates, business confidence and economic policy uncertainty. Their research suggests that while real interest rates do explain aggregate investment activity better than nominal interest rates, they nonetheless account for only a quarter of the explained investment downturn. Other, standard macro-financial variables also do not fully explain the recent investment slump. Using a new measure of economic policy uncertainty, their results suggest that heightened uncertainty and deteriorating business confidence have played an important role in the recent investment slowdown.

Date: February 26, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please join us for tea after the seminar. For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

25 February 2014: New Towns in West Bengal

Mahalaya Chatterjee
University of Calcutta

Abstract:
West Bengal is the most urbanised state of Eastern and North-eastern India. It ranked fourth at the time of Independence and though its rank deteriorated subsequently, the level of urbanisation remained higher than the national average. A central feature of urbanisation in the state was the primacy of the city of Kolkata, which is in part a colonial legacy. The two other regions of the state which showed relatively higher levels of urbanisation were the mining-cum-industrial region around Asansol-Durgapur in the western part and the trading-cum-transport hub around Siliguri in North Bengal. During this time, the emergence of new towns was also concentrated in the Kolkata Metropolitan Area and the Asansol-Durgapur area.

In 2001, the overall rate of urbanisation slowed down and as many as 68 towns were declassified, a feature hitherto unknown to West Bengal. But, just when it was thought that urbanisation is losing its vigour in the state, the preliminary results of the 2011 Census came out with another surprise. Not only had the rate of urbanisation increased enormously, it also surpassed the national rate for the first time since Independence. The second striking feature was the number of new towns and their spatial distribution. More than 500 new towns emerged in the state and they are not concentrated in the two regions, as before. Major concentrations of urban centres are emerging in so-called underdeveloped districts of Murshidabad, South 24 Parganas and Purulia. This presentation looks into this particular phenomenon and attempts an explanation in the light of available Census data. In a season of re-thinking systems and structures the presentation hopes to open the pandora’s box of education governance in a bid to widen the debate beyond outcomes and nudge the analysis towards finding solutions to some of the entrenched problems of governance in this crucial sector.

Date: February 25, 2014
Time: 03:45 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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20 February 2014: The Effects of NREGA on Loan Contracts

Clive Bell
University of Heidelberg, Germany

Date: February 20, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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25 February 2014: Food Inflation in India: Causes, Consequences and Policy Implications

Organised by:
Macro/Finance Group

Program

Date: February 25, 2014
Time: 10:00 A.M.

Venue:
NIPFP Auditorium (Ground Floor), Old Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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20 February 2014: The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance

Eswar Prasad
Brookings Institution and Cornell University

Abstract:
The U.S. dollar’s dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008-2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and the emergence of the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s displacement as the main reserve currency, which counters this conventional wisdom. Prof. Prasad argues that the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. His book offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe haven currency. Prasad will also offer his views on the renminbi's potential as a reserve currency, putting it in the context of China's growth prospects.

Date: February 20, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Lecture Hall No. 1,
India International Centre,
Max Mueller Marg, Lodi Estate,
New Delhi - 110 003(INDIA)

Location:

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19 February 2014: Toxic Pollution in India: The Unseen Public Health Menace

Richard Fuller
Blacksmith Institute
H. Conrad Meyer III
Blacksmith Institute
V Rajagopalan
Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India
Keshav Desiraju
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

Abstract:
The health impacts of toxic pollution, chemicals and wastes constitute an under-recognized global epidemic. Indeed, WHO estimates that one-fifth of the global burden of disease is attributable to environmental health problems. This little known yet major public health and environmental issue affects India as much as it does other developing countries. Exposure to toxic hotspots puts millions at risk. Worldwide, populations at risk from toxic pollution may exceed 200 million. In India, where some 320 sites have been identified so far, the estimate is about 25 million. And studies show that the health risks from toxic pollution are comparable to those from outdoor pollution and malaria. In short, this is a problem of scale. These health impacts are horrendous and tragic. Toxicants such as lead, mercury, chromium and others cause mental retardation, cancers, neurological damage, and gastro-intestinal and auto-immune disorders. In extreme cases, such exposures result in death. And, sadly, children and pregnant women are the ones most affected. With help from World Bank, Blacksmith Institute and others, the Indian government is tackling this issue. It is currently remediating the 10 worst polluted sites in the country. But the scale of the problem requires efforts from all stakeholders: government, industry, NGOs and the general public. Richard Fuller, President, Blacksmith Institute and the pioneer in calling the world's attention to this issue, will discuss the contours of the problem in India, the current state of play, and the recommended next steps. Dr V. Rajagopalan, Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests and Shri K. Desiraju, Secretary, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare will explain the initiatives being taken by their Ministries to deal with the ecological and health aspects of toxic pollution. Conrad Meyer, Chairman, Blacksmith Institute, will place efforts in India in the context of international action on toxic pollution, chemicals and wastes.

Date: February 19, 2014
Time: 10:30 A.M. (Registration: 10:00 A.M.)

Venue:
WWF Auditorium,
172-B, Lodhi Estate,
New Delhi - 110003(INDIA)

Location:

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13 February 2014: What Moves the Price-Rent Ratio? A Modifed Present-Value Approach

Kundan Kishor
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, USA

Abstract:
This paper proposes a modified present-value model that takes into account the fact that movements in the price-rent ratio may not be mean-reverting. Our approach decomposes the price-rent ratio into expected real rent growth, expected housing return and a non-present-value (NPV) component that represents the deviation of the price-rent ratio from its conventional present-value level for the 18 U.S. metropolitan areas and the nation from 1975 through 2012. This NPV component takes into account non-stationarity of the price-rent ratio. To estimate this modified present-value model, we use the unobserved component approach. Our findings suggest that the NPV component is significant and sometimes very large both at the national and the regional level. This is especially true for the MSAs that have experienced frequent booms and busts in the housing market. We also find that the MSAs that display larger deviation from the present-value model are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes. Our approach also allows us to estimate the correlation between expected rent growth, expected housing return and the NPV component. We find that the shock to expected housing return and shock to non-stationary NPV component is highly positively correlated in the pre-2006 sample period implying that they did feed off each other. This correlation declined significantly in the post-2006 sample period. Our results also show that most of the variations in the present-value component of the price-rent ratio arise due to the variations in expected housing return.

Date: February 13, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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12 February 2014: Earnings Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment

David Mare
Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, New Zealand

Abstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has the potential to raise domestic productivity and increase incomes, leading to improved living standards. FDI is often argued to be a source of direct benefits to the receiving firm, including improvements in management capability and access to overseas technologies and networks as well as financial capital. If the benefits of improved productivity and profitability are shared with local workers, this can in turn lead to higher incomes for New Zealand workers. Such benefits may also be available to other local firms, via observation, via transactions between foreign-owned firms and local suppliers and customers, through product market competition, and through labour mobility. These benefits (both direct and indirect) are often cited as a rationale for reducing barriers to FDI and supporting greater foreign investment into New Zealand.

This paper explores a key potential source of economic benefits from foreign direct investment – human capital accumulation and earnings increases by New Zealand employees of multinational firms. We consider the following questions:

Do foreign owned firms source labour differently from NZ-owned firms?
Do foreign firms pay higher wages (or provide higher wage growth) for a similar initial level of skill?
Where do employees of foreign-owned firms end up when they leave their jobs?
Does employment in a foreign-owned firm have a lasting impact on individual wages?

Date: February 12, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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