Arvind Subramanian
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP
estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across
different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar
underlying data and using almost identical methodologies, that this variability
is systematic; and that it is intrinsic to the methodology deployed by the PWT
to estimate growth rates. Moreover, this variability matters for the
cross-country growth literature. While growth studies that use low frequency
data remain robust to data revisions, studies that use annual data are less
robust. Second, thePWT methodology leads to GDP estimates that are not valued
at purchasing power parity (PPP) prices. This is surprising because the raison
d'etre of the PWT is to adjust national estimates of GDP by valuing output at
common international (purchasing power parity [PPP]) prices so that the
resulting PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP are comparable across countries. We
propose an approach to address these two problems of variability and valuation.
Date: March 1, 2011
Time: 03:30 P.M.
Venue:
Seminar Room 2,
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (India)
Location:
View Larger Map
Monday, February 28, 2011
4 March 2011: Urbanization and Land Markets in India
Dipak Dasgupta
Ministry of Finance
Abstract:
Paper will discuss developments and drivers in both and some
institutional and policy challenges in financing urbanization.
Date: March 4, 2011
Time: 03:30 P.M.
Venue:
NIPFP Auditorium,
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Ministry of Finance
Abstract:
Paper will discuss developments and drivers in both and some
institutional and policy challenges in financing urbanization.
Date: March 4, 2011
Time: 03:30 P.M.
Venue:
NIPFP Auditorium,
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
24 February 2011: Axiom of Monotonicity: An Experimental Test
Tridib Sharma
Centro de Investigación Económica, ITAM, Mexico and
Visiting Faculty, ISI, Delhi
Abstract:
The Axiom of Monotonicity (AM) is a necessary condition for a number of
expected utility representations, including those obtained by de Finetti
(1930), von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954). The paper
reports on experiments that directly test AM by eliminating strategic
uncertainty, context, and peer effects. In this sterile and simple
environment we do not observe AM violations under uncertainty but we do
observe violations under ambiguity.
Date: February 24, 2011
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
New Seminar Room [First Floor],
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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Centro de Investigación Económica, ITAM, Mexico and
Visiting Faculty, ISI, Delhi
Abstract:
The Axiom of Monotonicity (AM) is a necessary condition for a number of
expected utility representations, including those obtained by de Finetti
(1930), von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954). The paper
reports on experiments that directly test AM by eliminating strategic
uncertainty, context, and peer effects. In this sterile and simple
environment we do not observe AM violations under uncertainty but we do
observe violations under ambiguity.
Date: February 24, 2011
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
New Seminar Room [First Floor],
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Friday, February 18, 2011
22 February 2011: Spatializing Knowledge in Urban Governance
Isa Baud
University of Amsterdam
N. Sridharan
School of Planning and Architecture
Abstract:
New forms of urban governance require Indian local bodies to work increasingly
with other partners from private sector and civil society organisations. Such
networks also demand spatialized knowledge to provide legitimacy in
negotiations for setting priorities, and for making processes transparent and
effective. Such knowledge is available in many formats (expert, embedded,
tacit, community-based), but not always recognized or generated in a usable
form. Spatializing knowledge provides a means to link different types of
knowledge to one locality to promote common understanding, potentially
increasing legitimacy in decision-making. This presentation reports on methods
developed in the Netherlands-India research programme on ‘Utilizing spatial
knowledge in urban governance networks’, being carried out in four cities in
India. The presentation will discuss the potential of the tools developed so
far for more participatory urban governance networks.
Date: February 22, 2011
Time: 03:45 P.M.
Venue:
Conference Hall,
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)
Location:
University of Amsterdam
N. Sridharan
School of Planning and Architecture
Abstract:
New forms of urban governance require Indian local bodies to work increasingly
with other partners from private sector and civil society organisations. Such
networks also demand spatialized knowledge to provide legitimacy in
negotiations for setting priorities, and for making processes transparent and
effective. Such knowledge is available in many formats (expert, embedded,
tacit, community-based), but not always recognized or generated in a usable
form. Spatializing knowledge provides a means to link different types of
knowledge to one locality to promote common understanding, potentially
increasing legitimacy in decision-making. This presentation reports on methods
developed in the Netherlands-India research programme on ‘Utilizing spatial
knowledge in urban governance networks’, being carried out in four cities in
India. The presentation will discuss the potential of the tools developed so
far for more participatory urban governance networks.
Date: February 22, 2011
Time: 03:45 P.M.
Venue:
Conference Hall,
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Thursday, February 17, 2011
24 February 2011: Self-Help Groups: Some Reflections from the Field in Andhra Pradesh
Howard White
3ie
Abstract:
Self Help Groups have grown very rapidly in the last ten years, notably in
Andhra Pradesh. The model is now being replicated more widely across India.
This presentation draws on fieldwork in Andhra Pradesh in 2005-7 as to the
workings of SHGs.
Whilst these groups succeeded in channeling substantial resources into
villages via project funds and bank linkages, they were not without problems
of corruption, exclusion and failing to improve the livelihoods of the poorest
groups.
Date: February 24, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
3ie
Abstract:
Self Help Groups have grown very rapidly in the last ten years, notably in
Andhra Pradesh. The model is now being replicated more widely across India.
This presentation draws on fieldwork in Andhra Pradesh in 2005-7 as to the
workings of SHGs.
Whilst these groups succeeded in channeling substantial resources into
villages via project funds and bank linkages, they were not without problems
of corruption, exclusion and failing to improve the livelihoods of the poorest
groups.
Date: February 24, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
21 February 2011: India and the World - The Economic Dimension
Dr. Sanjaya Baru
IISS
Abstract:
Graduating from the post-colonial phase of its interaction with the world and
re-orienting its foreign policy to deal with the post- Cold War world, India
discovered that its re-emergence as a major economic entity in the global
system is increasingly shaping its grand strategy. India's rise as a major
power is intrinsically linked to its rise as a major economy.
Two ideas and two phenomenon have shaped this thinking. The first idea is the
concept of Comprehensive National Power (CNP); second, the idea of
'inter-dependence', as opposed to 'dependence', in a globalised world economy.
The two phenomenon are, first, the collapse of the Soviet Union and rise of
China, based on theories of CNP and inter-dependence; and, second, the growing
influence of the business and middle classes in shaping Indian foreign policy.
India's attempts to build a CNP series (Index of National Security), the range
of FTA/ CECA and CEPA, the economic component of a range of strategic
partnerships help quantify the importance of economic development and openness
to India¡'s grand strategy. An Index of Bilateral Relationship (IBR) based on
people-to-people, business-to-business and government-to-government relations
would therefore offer a more balanced picture of the relative importance of
India's emerging strategic partnerships.
Date: February 21, 2011
Time: 4:00 P.M.
Venue:
Seminar Hall-1 (Second Floor),
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave,
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
IISS
Abstract:
Graduating from the post-colonial phase of its interaction with the world and
re-orienting its foreign policy to deal with the post- Cold War world, India
discovered that its re-emergence as a major economic entity in the global
system is increasingly shaping its grand strategy. India's rise as a major
power is intrinsically linked to its rise as a major economy.
Two ideas and two phenomenon have shaped this thinking. The first idea is the
concept of Comprehensive National Power (CNP); second, the idea of
'inter-dependence', as opposed to 'dependence', in a globalised world economy.
The two phenomenon are, first, the collapse of the Soviet Union and rise of
China, based on theories of CNP and inter-dependence; and, second, the growing
influence of the business and middle classes in shaping Indian foreign policy.
India's attempts to build a CNP series (Index of National Security), the range
of FTA/ CECA and CEPA, the economic component of a range of strategic
partnerships help quantify the importance of economic development and openness
to India¡'s grand strategy. An Index of Bilateral Relationship (IBR) based on
people-to-people, business-to-business and government-to-government relations
would therefore offer a more balanced picture of the relative importance of
India's emerging strategic partnerships.
Date: February 21, 2011
Time: 4:00 P.M.
Venue:
Seminar Hall-1 (Second Floor),
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave,
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
18 February 2011: Trading Intentions and Behavioral Bidders in First-Price Auctions
Anmol Ratan
Monash University
Abstract:
I propose a model of loss-averse bidders with endogenous trading intentions. Endowment effect has been widely reported in laboratory settings (Knetsch 1989, Tversky and Kahneman 1991, Loewenstein and Adler 1995, Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler 1990, Benartzi and Thaler 1995, Camerer 1995, List 2003, 2004). Recently such preferences have been applied to auction settings which suggest that differences can arise between the laboratory induced value and real commodity auctions due to anticipated loss aversion (Lange and Ratan 2010). Another implication of such preferences is that in the presence of outside markets for auction commodity, such preferences will affect bidding: differences in access to outside markets would then affect trading intentions and produce differences from neoclassical predictions.
In a stylized first-price auction, I show that bidders with advantageous access to outside markets are least affected by anticipated loss-aversion and bid closer to neoclassical predictions while bidders with less advantageous access to outside markets are more affected by anticipated loss-aversion and bid differently from neoclassical predictions. If market access is interpreted as a proxy for market experience, the results support the findings in List (2003, 2004).
This paper makes the following contributions to the literature: first, it highlights the implications of endogenously determined trading intentions for bidding in real commodity auctions. Because such effects are not relevant for induced value auctions, it suggests an additional difference between field and induced value auctions. These findings have potentially significant implications for the interpretation of laboratory data and transferring qualitative insights to bidding in real commodity auctions (List and Harrison 2004; Lange and Ratan 2010). Second, extending the effect of endogenous trading intentions to other auction contexts can explain puzzling phenomenon; especially towards understanding incremental bidding in online auctions where low transaction and communication costs have expanded the trading opportunities for real commodities. Third, the paper suggests that in my framework, innate differences in preferences are not required to produce differences between the laboratory and real commodity auctions; this calls for a careful reinterpretation of List’s (2003, 2004) findings which suggest previous market experience could alter preferences.
Date: February 18, 2011
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
New Seminar Room [First Floor],
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Monash University
Abstract:
I propose a model of loss-averse bidders with endogenous trading intentions. Endowment effect has been widely reported in laboratory settings (Knetsch 1989, Tversky and Kahneman 1991, Loewenstein and Adler 1995, Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler 1990, Benartzi and Thaler 1995, Camerer 1995, List 2003, 2004). Recently such preferences have been applied to auction settings which suggest that differences can arise between the laboratory induced value and real commodity auctions due to anticipated loss aversion (Lange and Ratan 2010). Another implication of such preferences is that in the presence of outside markets for auction commodity, such preferences will affect bidding: differences in access to outside markets would then affect trading intentions and produce differences from neoclassical predictions.
In a stylized first-price auction, I show that bidders with advantageous access to outside markets are least affected by anticipated loss-aversion and bid closer to neoclassical predictions while bidders with less advantageous access to outside markets are more affected by anticipated loss-aversion and bid differently from neoclassical predictions. If market access is interpreted as a proxy for market experience, the results support the findings in List (2003, 2004).
This paper makes the following contributions to the literature: first, it highlights the implications of endogenously determined trading intentions for bidding in real commodity auctions. Because such effects are not relevant for induced value auctions, it suggests an additional difference between field and induced value auctions. These findings have potentially significant implications for the interpretation of laboratory data and transferring qualitative insights to bidding in real commodity auctions (List and Harrison 2004; Lange and Ratan 2010). Second, extending the effect of endogenous trading intentions to other auction contexts can explain puzzling phenomenon; especially towards understanding incremental bidding in online auctions where low transaction and communication costs have expanded the trading opportunities for real commodities. Third, the paper suggests that in my framework, innate differences in preferences are not required to produce differences between the laboratory and real commodity auctions; this calls for a careful reinterpretation of List’s (2003, 2004) findings which suggest previous market experience could alter preferences.
Date: February 18, 2011
Time: 03:00 P.M.
Venue:
New Seminar Room [First Floor],
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Friday, February 11, 2011
16 February 2011: Transforming Slums and Transcending Poverty with an Innovative Water and Sanitation Paradigm
Himanshu Parikh
Consulting Engineers
Abstract:
A third of the urban population around the world lives in shanties and ghettos.
Can this change? Slum Networking exploits the powerful correlation between
distressed urban areas and natural drainage paths to transform the environment
and infrastructure of not just run down areas but the city as a whole. Slums
are no longer liabilities but, instead, wonderful catalysts of change. It is
an example of how Engineering can change lives. In the bargain, the knock on
effects on health, education, incomes and social conditions of the poor are
substantial.
The work has so far covered a million people and questions our basic
assumptions about poverty and the resourcefulness of the poor. The approach
amalgamates constructive partnerships with business to multiply resources,
reduce aid dependency and facilitate mechanisms of secure tenure, micro-banking
and democratic decentralisation. In the process, some of the conventional
paradigms of development are also challenged.
Date: February 16, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Consulting Engineers
Abstract:
A third of the urban population around the world lives in shanties and ghettos.
Can this change? Slum Networking exploits the powerful correlation between
distressed urban areas and natural drainage paths to transform the environment
and infrastructure of not just run down areas but the city as a whole. Slums
are no longer liabilities but, instead, wonderful catalysts of change. It is
an example of how Engineering can change lives. In the bargain, the knock on
effects on health, education, incomes and social conditions of the poor are
substantial.
The work has so far covered a million people and questions our basic
assumptions about poverty and the resourcefulness of the poor. The approach
amalgamates constructive partnerships with business to multiply resources,
reduce aid dependency and facilitate mechanisms of secure tenure, micro-banking
and democratic decentralisation. In the process, some of the conventional
paradigms of development are also challenged.
Date: February 16, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
9 February 2011: Climate Change and Crisis Response: Recent Evaluations of World Bank Support
Vinod Thomas
World Bank
Date: February 9, 2011
Time: 10:45 A.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
World Bank
Date: February 9, 2011
Time: 10:45 A.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
Location:
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Thursday, February 3, 2011
4 February 2011: The Role of State in Health Financing
Dr. Robert Yates
Department For International Development
Date: February 4, 2011
Time: 4:00 P.M.
Venue:
Auditorium,
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
Department For International Development
Date: February 4, 2011
Time: 4:00 P.M.
Venue:
Auditorium,
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
8 February 2011: Launch of Urban Health Policy Briefs
Presenters:
Rajeev Ahuja, Meera Chatterjee and Shomikho Raha
World Bank
Discussants:
Jerry La Forgia and Roland Lomme
Abstract:
The World Bank, in partnership with Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI),
has launched India Health Beat -- short, evidence based policy note series
primarily targeted at Indian policy makers at various levels. The recently
published (December 2010) set of policy briefs, which is the fourth round, is
based on the theme of urban health in India. Within this overarching theme, the
series contains notes on variety of topics ranging from institutional
arrangements for service delivery to population-based public health challenges
in urban settings, from mapping of broad urban trends with respect to
demography, poverty, and disease epidemiology to specific success stories of
transformation of public health services in cities. The current collection is
quite relevant to the current policy context and is expected to contribute to
the ongoing discussion on the national urban health mission.
Date: February 8, 2011
Time: 2:00 P.M.
Venue:
Upper Basement Conference Room,
Rajeev Ahuja, Meera Chatterjee and Shomikho Raha
World Bank
Discussants:
Jerry La Forgia and Roland Lomme
Abstract:
The World Bank, in partnership with Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI),
has launched India Health Beat -- short, evidence based policy note series
primarily targeted at Indian policy makers at various levels. The recently
published (December 2010) set of policy briefs, which is the fourth round, is
based on the theme of urban health in India. Within this overarching theme, the
series contains notes on variety of topics ranging from institutional
arrangements for service delivery to population-based public health challenges
in urban settings, from mapping of broad urban trends with respect to
demography, poverty, and disease epidemiology to specific success stories of
transformation of public health services in cities. The current collection is
quite relevant to the current policy context and is expected to contribute to
the ongoing discussion on the national urban health mission.
Date: February 8, 2011
Time: 2:00 P.M.
Venue:
Upper Basement Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
2 February 2011: Opportunities for All
Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi
World Bank
Abstract
The presentation will discuss levels and trends in inequality of opportunities in access basic goods and services, alternatives for measuring inequality of opportunities and potential uses for policy analysis. The discussion will use examples from Latin America and East Asia.
Date: February 2, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
World Bank
Abstract
The presentation will discuss levels and trends in inequality of opportunities in access basic goods and services, alternatives for measuring inequality of opportunities and potential uses for policy analysis. The discussion will use examples from Latin America and East Asia.
Date: February 2, 2011
Time: 12:30 P.M.
Venue:
Second Floor Conference Room,
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
3 February 2011: Innovation and the Dynamics of Global Warming
Ralph A. Winter
University of British Columbia
Abstract
Global warming and greenhouse gases are a dynamic system with positive feedback effects.Fossil fuels are an exhaustible resource. These two facts mean that in the most basic of models, innovation in clean energy technology makes the global warming problem worse, not better. This paper explores the impact of innovation and its interaction with carbon taxes in the simplest model linking the theory of exhaustible resources with the dynamics of global warming.
Global warming and greenhouse gases are a dynamic system with positive feedback effects.Fossil fuels are an exhaustible resource. These two facts mean that in the most basic of models, innovation in clean energy technology makes the global warming problem worse, not better. This paper explores the impact of innovation and its interaction with carbon taxes in the simplest model linking the theory of exhaustible resources with the dynamics of global warming.
Date: February 3, 2011
Time: 3:00 P.M.
Venue:
New Seminar Room [First Floor],
New Seminar Room [First Floor],
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics.
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Delhi School of Economics.
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)
Location:
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9 February 2011: India's Counterinsurgency Strategy 2020
Vasundhara Sirnate
University of California, Berkeley
Abstract
The presence of any insurgency is indicative of the absence or failure of regular models and processes of substantively representative democratic politics, and, the failure of conventional models of economic development. Today 20 out of 28 Indian states have at least one insurgent group operating on their territory. In the northeast alone at last count there were 117 insurgent groups (both operational and inactive). The Indian Maoists have been able to purportedly establish a presence in 220 Indian districts in what is called the “Red Corridor”. Levels of human security are abysmal in these parts of the country. Several insurgencies have acquired an economic logic and momentum of their own. In other cases, the extreme number of insurgent groups active in a given piece of territory has made pacts unviable, like in Manipur. The use of subcontracted force in Chhattisgarh has been severely criticized for the rise in civilian deaths and revenge killings that it generated. Many insurgent groups are located in areas where the state’s administrative presence is weak or historically exploitative; police-population ratios are low and regions that are heavily forested or mountainous. This has thrown up unique tactical challenges for the state and forced the state to experiment with different models of combating insurgency. Clearly, insurgency and counterinsurgency, between them, have generated sufficiently durable dynamics that have led to peace in some cases (like Mizoram), but have exacerbated the problem in other cases (Manipur, Chhattisgarh). While the persistence of insurgencies in India is definitely not conclusive proof that enough is not being done to combat them, it is still sufficiently indicative that current models of counterinsurgency, and, our understanding of insurgencies needs to be refashioned and repositioned in response to current evaluations of ground situations and what learning can be gleaned from these conditions.
Date: February 9, 2011
The presence of any insurgency is indicative of the absence or failure of regular models and processes of substantively representative democratic politics, and, the failure of conventional models of economic development. Today 20 out of 28 Indian states have at least one insurgent group operating on their territory. In the northeast alone at last count there were 117 insurgent groups (both operational and inactive). The Indian Maoists have been able to purportedly establish a presence in 220 Indian districts in what is called the “Red Corridor”. Levels of human security are abysmal in these parts of the country. Several insurgencies have acquired an economic logic and momentum of their own. In other cases, the extreme number of insurgent groups active in a given piece of territory has made pacts unviable, like in Manipur. The use of subcontracted force in Chhattisgarh has been severely criticized for the rise in civilian deaths and revenge killings that it generated. Many insurgent groups are located in areas where the state’s administrative presence is weak or historically exploitative; police-population ratios are low and regions that are heavily forested or mountainous. This has thrown up unique tactical challenges for the state and forced the state to experiment with different models of combating insurgency. Clearly, insurgency and counterinsurgency, between them, have generated sufficiently durable dynamics that have led to peace in some cases (like Mizoram), but have exacerbated the problem in other cases (Manipur, Chhattisgarh). While the persistence of insurgencies in India is definitely not conclusive proof that enough is not being done to combat them, it is still sufficiently indicative that current models of counterinsurgency, and, our understanding of insurgencies needs to be refashioned and repositioned in response to current evaluations of ground situations and what learning can be gleaned from these conditions.
Date: February 9, 2011
Time: 11:00 A.M.
Venue:
Boardroom,
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave,
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)
Boardroom,
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
1, Development Enclave,
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi-110010(INDIA)
Location:
View Larger Map
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