29 November 2019: Discussion on 'India's Economy in a hole: Keep Digging?'

Lant Pritchett
Centre for Policy Research

Discussant:
Ajay Shah, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP)

Organised by
The Centre for Policy Research (CPR)

Abstract:
Weak capability for implementation and beautiful rules create complex deals. Complex deals can create a rapidly growing economy, but at the same time prevent the move to rules. Hence, the paradox can be move to rules that can be good in the long run but bad in the short term,or move to deals that are good in the short term but not in the long run. This talk will unpack these relationships and dynamics in the context of the Indian economy and state capacity.

Date: November 29, 2019
Time: 11:00 A.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Note:
Please RSVP at president.cpr@cprindia.org. The seating at the venue can accommodate up to 60 people on a first come first serve basis.

Location:

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5 December 2019: The Impact of Monetary Policy in a Dual Economy

Varsha S. Kulkarni
Harvard University

Organised by
The Centre for Development Economics and Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics

Abstract:
There is a line of research in macroeconomics that believes that if the expectations are rational then the activist monetary policies would do little to raise the output and instead may increase or even destabilize the inflation. In accordance with the New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC), when the traders are able to anticipate changes in policies, they’re able to make accurate estimations of inflation and hence the output would remain mostly unchanged (at full employment). This absence of an appreciable long-run tradeoff between inflation and output also strengthens the case for inflation targeting. However, in practice both the long-run neutrality of money and unchanging output have been increasingly questioned. The impact of policies is known to be substantial for increasing output. Further, one of the main drawbacks of NKPC is identified as not being able to explain the widely prevalent inflation persistence. In keeping with all this, a hybrid expectations model is often suggested as an improvement, one which would incorporate both backward-looking and forward-looking inflation components. While researchers are constantly trying to study different sources of market imperfections to explain the findings, there is a lot of variation across countries in terms of the behavior of traders and the formation of expectations. It is of interest to see how the policies like inflation targeting would unfold in the midst of uncertainties and aggregate demand shocks experienced commonly by the developing economies. We explore one such scenario for an economy like India which functions dually between the well-regulated and informed formal sector on the one hand and the relatively unregulated and uninformed informal sector on the other. We identify the informal sector as an important source of imperfection and expectation heterogeneity. We study the heterogeneous expectations in terms of their reactions to inflation target both theoretically and empirically. In this paper, the heterogeneity in expectations together with the response to an inflation target gives rise to a non-constant velocity and, therefore, aggregate demand, even when money supply is fixed. We find that the presence of informal sector makes it difficult to control the fluctuations in output and therefore poses a challenge to effective policy making. We study empirically the impact of demonetization shock. Finally, the paper incorporates this heterogeneity as two different kinds of firms reacting differently to new information or policies. It derives a variant of the sticky information Phillips curve developed earlier. In this talk, I will present the computational, empirical as well as theoretical results and discuss the implications.

Date: December 5, 2019
Time: 03:05 P.M.

Venue:
Amex Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

4 December 2019: Lecture on "Global Spillovers, Multilateral Cooperation and WTO Reform"

Bernard Hoekman
European University Institute in Florence, Italy

Organised by:
Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) in collaboration with India Habitat Centre

Date: December 4, 2019
Time: 07:00 P.M.

Venue:
Gulmohar Hall,
India Habitat Centre,
Lodi Road,
New Delhi 110003
(Entry from Gate No. 3)

Location:

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Cancelled due to declaration of holiday on account of severe air pollution in Delhi-NCR - 15 November 2019: Dealing with Natural Disasters - Shrinking role of the community and the market, and the expansion of the state

Barun Mitra
Founder Director Liberty Institute

Organised by
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

Abstract:
Throughout much of history mankind has relied on its own ingenuity and imagination in the face of many natural disasters. Many cultures across the world recognise in their epics the enormous disruption a natural disaster caused, in the form of a great flood or lost continents. These shared experiences not only disrupted the communities, but also often reshaped the relationships within it.

With the rapid progress of science and technology in the last few centuries, many secrets of nature have been unraveled. With economic development man’s capacity to reduce his vulnerability to the natural hazards have greatly increased.

However, with rise of the nation state, particularly in the last two centuries, the onus of dealing with disasters, natural or man-made, have been increasingly claimed by the state. This is also a phase when citizens and the community have slowly surrendered their own responsibilities and capacities.

Disasters, man-made ones such as wars or social and economic turmoil, or natural ones, like a flood or an earthquake, have increasingly opened the space for unbridled expansion of the State, at the cost of freedom of the citizens and integrity and autonomy of the community.

The threat posed by natural disasters is now being superseded by the threat that is emerging to human civilisation itself from the agency of the state that is threatening to play God, in the name of protecting her people from the wrath of nature. This is threatening to turn the clock back towards the dark days of the divine rights of the rulers who wielded absolute power over the people by claiming absolute knowledge and complete command over resources. In contrast, citizens in a community and in their interactions in the marketplace acknowledge the limited knowledge and the scarcity of resources.

Two contemporary episodes, the never ending war on terror, and the endless horse trading over climate change, illustrate how the misguided state policies have fuelled the sense of crisis. Then the same sense of fear have enabled the state to continuously claim more authority and power to deal with the challenges that it has singularly contributed to create. A perverse incentive has developed to fuel and perpetuate the sense of crisis and fear, and leverage that to ensure the expansion of the state power.

Date: November 15, 2019
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall, Ground Floor
R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation at latha.balasubramanian@nipfp.org.in

Location:

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19 November 2019: Session on "Being a Young Woman in India: Narratives and Perspectives"

Speakers:
Shaheena Attarwala, RuthlessUx and Social Activist, Bangalore
Shriti Pandey, Strawcture Eco, Gorakhpur
Ashweetha Shetty, Bodhi Tree Foundation, Tirunelveli
Vasanthi Veluri, Peoli, Almora

Moderator:
Amitav Virmani, The Education Alliance

Organised by:
Ananta Centre

Date: November 19, 2019
Time: 03:30 P.M. (Registration: 03:00 PM)

Venue:
Seminar Room I & II,
Kamladevi Complex,
India International Centre,
40, Max Mueller Marg, Lodhi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)

Note:
Please confirm at:
shreya.talwar@anantacentre.in/charu.jishnu@anantacentre.in
Prior registration is mandatory.

Location:

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23 November 2019: Lecture on 'Encryption Security and Privacy in the Digital Age'

Manoj Prabhakaran
Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay

Organised by:
Internet Freedom Foundation

Abstract:
Are you tired of simplistic lock and key analogies which pervade most legal and policy discourse surrounding encryption?

The last year has seen encryption technologies become a subject of intense discussion in courts and within the government. In India and several other countries, there are demands to weaken encryption through backdoors and key escrow systems to facilitate easier access to information for law enforcement agencies. At the same time, encryption is also one of the few tools available to individuals to protect themselves from surveillance by Big Brother and Big Tech.

Date: November 23, 2019
Time: 06:30 P.M.

Venue:
Constitution Club of India
Vithal Bhai Patel House,
Rafi Marg, Behind Reserve Bank of India,
New Delhi-110001 (India)

Note:
Please register at: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/encryption-pe-charcha-a-public-lecture-by-dr-manoj-prabhakaran-tickets-81279764965

Location:

15 November 2019: Talk on 'Government at the Grassroots: A case study of field administration'

Rashmi Sharma
Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

Organised by
The Centre for Policy Research (CPR)

Abstract:
The working of government at the grassroots was explored through a case study of field administration in one district in Madhya Pradesh, based on an analysis of 56 government organizations across 8 departments, interviews with Panchayat Representatives, government officials, NGO representatives and journalists, and focus group discussions with citizens.

The case study found that though the role of field administration was very wide, the capacity to deliver was constrained for several reasons. The structure was fragmented, with separate offices of 37 departments at various levels, as well as rural and urban local governments. Given the large number of government offices, there was inadequate manpower in individual institutions, especially at the grassroots. Moreover, there were several gaps in expertise, and a large number of posts were vacant. At the grassroots, several types of workers were hired on contract at low salaries, with no prospects of promotion. They were dissatisfied and agitated constantly for better working conditions. The posting of regular employees was patronage-based, and promotions very slow, which created a perverse incentive. The infrastructure in many field institutions was inadequate in terms of seating space, toilets, drinking water and sanitation.

Departmental offices from the state headquarter exercised tight control over the field offices in terms of activities, manpower and finances. This made it difficult for government workers to respond to people’s needs. The role of local governments, through extensive as per law, was very limited in practice. The District Collector had varying authority over departmental offices. Consequently, the capacity for coordinated action was limited. There was little analysis of problems, because officials saw their role as following orders. Technology had been used to centralize even more as state level officials monitored more intensely through daily reports and video conferences. There was wide-spread rent-seeking, and the impact of measures to enhance the accountability to the community was weak. This resulted in poor quality institutions, fractious relations between government workers and citizens, and poor capacity to solve local problems.

There is need to seriously re-think field administration. The measures suggested include empowering local governments, creating fewer but stronger organizations, hiring better skilled personnel at the grassroots, providing greater opportunities for promotion, developing more consultative and analytical processes of working and eliminating rent-seeking.

Date: November 15, 2019
Time: 10:00 A.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Note:
Please RSVP at president.cpr@cprindia.org

Location:

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21 November 2019: Book Launch and Discussion: 'India in a Warming World: Integrating Climate Change and Development'

Speakers:
Chandra Bhushan, International Forum for Environment, Sustainability & Technology (iFOREST)
Naina Lal Kidwai, Advent Private Equity India Advisory board and former President, FICCI
Nitin Sethi, Independent journalist and writer

Moderator:
Navroz K. Dubash, Centre for Policy Research and Editor, India in A Warming World

Organised by
The Centre for Policy Research (CPR)

Abstract:
As science is increasingly making clear, the problem of climate change poses an existential challenge for humanity. For India, this challenge is compounded by immediate concerns of eradicating poverty and accelerating development, and complicated by its relatively limited role thus far in causing the problem. India in a Warming World explores this complex context for India’s engagement with climate change. But, in addition, it argues that India, like other countries, can no longer ignore the problem, because a pathway to development innocent of climate change is no longer available. Bringing together leading researchers, activists, and policymakers, this volume lays out the emergent debate on climate change in India. Collectively, the chapters deepen clarity on why India should engage with climate change and how it can best do so.

Date: November 21, 2019
Time: 06:00 P.M.

Venue:
Kamladevi Complex,
India International Centre
Max Mueller Marg,
New Delhi - 110003(INDIA)

Note:
Please RSVP at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfPct5xHSCPMgWyCG9X9nL4SQRsg6K4tMZWcb7Dwrl55YerBw/viewform

13 November 2019: The Turn-of-the-Year Effect before Income Taxes or Modern Institutional Investors

Vikas Mehrotra
Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta

Organised by
Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Delhi Center

Abstract:
Favoured explanations for the large and persistent turn-of-the-year effect in stock returns are tax-loss selling and institutional investor window-dressing. A new dataset of pre-CRSP NYSE daily stock-level total returns reveals a statistically significant 2.2 percent turn-of-the-year market return between 1874 and 1917, a period preceding income taxes and modern institutional investors in the U.S. The turn-of- he-year return is higher for small, growth and extreme winner and loser stocks. Our evidence implies that taxes cannot be the sole explanation for the turn-of-the-year effect. Either some form of window-dressing predates modern institutional investors, or other explanations for the anomaly must be sought.

Date: November 13, 2019
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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15 November 2019: Dealing with Natural Disasters - Shrinking role of the community and the market, and the expansion of the state

Barun Mitra
Founder Director Liberty Institute

Organised by
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

Abstract:
Throughout much of history mankind has relied on its own ingenuity and imagination in the face of many natural disasters. Many cultures across the world recognise in their epics the enormous disruption a natural disaster caused, in the form of a great flood or lost continents. These shared experiences not only disrupted the communities, but also often reshaped the relationships within it.

With the rapid progress of science and technology in the last few centuries, many secrets of nature have been unraveled. With economic development man’s capacity to reduce his vulnerability to the natural hazards have greatly increased.

However, with rise of the nation state, particularly in the last two centuries, the onus of dealing with disasters, natural or man-made, have been increasingly claimed by the state. This is also a phase when citizens and the community have slowly surrendered their own responsibilities and capacities.

Disasters, man-made ones such as wars or social and economic turmoil, or natural ones, like a flood or an earthquake, have increasingly opened the space for unbridled expansion of the State, at the cost of freedom of the citizens and integrity and autonomy of the community.

The threat posed by natural disasters is now being superseded by the threat that is emerging to human civilisation itself from the agency of the state that is threatening to play God, in the name of protecting her people from the wrath of nature. This is threatening to turn the clock back towards the dark days of the divine rights of the rulers who wielded absolute power over the people by claiming absolute knowledge and complete command over resources. In contrast, citizens in a community and in their interactions in the marketplace acknowledge the limited knowledge and the scarcity of resources.

Two contemporary episodes, the never ending war on terror, and the endless horse trading over climate change, illustrate how the misguided state policies have fuelled the sense of crisis. Then the same sense of fear have enabled the state to continuously claim more authority and power to deal with the challenges that it has singularly contributed to create. A perverse incentive has developed to fuel and perpetuate the sense of crisis and fear, and leverage that to ensure the expansion of the state power.

Date: November 15, 2019
Time: 04:00 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall, Ground Floor
R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Note:
Those who are interested may please confirm your participation at latha.balasubramanian@nipfp.org.in

Location:

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8 November 2019: TRIPS, Patents, and Drug Prices in India

Bhaven Sampat
Columbia University and NBER

Organised by
The Centre for Development Economics and Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics

Abstract:
This paper examines the effects of product patents on drug prices and competition in India. Several previous analyses have found only negligible effects of patents on prices and competition in the post-TRIPS era, citing inadequate implementation and unique aspects of Indian Patent Law such as Section 3(d) as potential explanations for these surprising findings. We argue that the limited impact thus far instead reflects another aspect of TRIPS implementation: the decision to not allow patents with pre-1995 priority dates. We demonstrate that the main patents on most drugs approved until very recently (and the majority of drugs covered by previous analyses) are pre-1995 priority. When we focus on drugs fully covered by the TRIPS regime - those whose primary (compound) patent has a post-1995 priority date — we find much larger effects of patents on prices and competition. We argue that these price/competition effects are what we should expect in the long-run steady state, once the long shadow of implementation fades. We discuss implications for prices, access, and innovation in India and globally, and for empirical research on the globalization of patent protection.

Date: November 8, 2019
Time: 03:05 P.M.

Venue:
Amex Room (Second Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location: