Wednesday, February 26, 2014

6 March 2014: Transition and The Middle Income Trap: Lessons from Eastern Europe

Erik Berglof
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Date: March 6, 2014
Time: 04:30 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall, Ground Floor, R&T Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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Tuesday, February 25, 2014

10 March 2014: The Burden of Disease from Household Air Pollution in India

Kirk Smith
University of California, Berkeley

Date: March 10, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Lecture Theatre
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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Monday, February 24, 2014

26 February 2014: Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown

Rahul Anand & Volodymyr Tulin
International Monetary Fund

Abstract:
Anand and Tulin will report on their recent research on the investment slowdown in India and explore its underlying causes. India’s sharp deceleration in investment has sparked a debate about the role of interest rates, business confidence and economic policy uncertainty. Their research suggests that while real interest rates do explain aggregate investment activity better than nominal interest rates, they nonetheless account for only a quarter of the explained investment downturn. Other, standard macro-financial variables also do not fully explain the recent investment slump. Using a new measure of economic policy uncertainty, their results suggest that heightened uncertainty and deteriorating business confidence have played an important role in the recent investment slowdown.

Date: February 26, 2014
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
NCAER Conference Room
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11, Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi-110002(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please join us for tea after the seminar. For queries, please contact Ms Sudesh Bala at sbala@ncaer.org or on 011-2345-2669.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

25 February 2014: New Towns in West Bengal

Mahalaya Chatterjee
University of Calcutta

Abstract:
West Bengal is the most urbanised state of Eastern and North-eastern India. It ranked fourth at the time of Independence and though its rank deteriorated subsequently, the level of urbanisation remained higher than the national average. A central feature of urbanisation in the state was the primacy of the city of Kolkata, which is in part a colonial legacy. The two other regions of the state which showed relatively higher levels of urbanisation were the mining-cum-industrial region around Asansol-Durgapur in the western part and the trading-cum-transport hub around Siliguri in North Bengal. During this time, the emergence of new towns was also concentrated in the Kolkata Metropolitan Area and the Asansol-Durgapur area.

In 2001, the overall rate of urbanisation slowed down and as many as 68 towns were declassified, a feature hitherto unknown to West Bengal. But, just when it was thought that urbanisation is losing its vigour in the state, the preliminary results of the 2011 Census came out with another surprise. Not only had the rate of urbanisation increased enormously, it also surpassed the national rate for the first time since Independence. The second striking feature was the number of new towns and their spatial distribution. More than 500 new towns emerged in the state and they are not concentrated in the two regions, as before. Major concentrations of urban centres are emerging in so-called underdeveloped districts of Murshidabad, South 24 Parganas and Purulia. This presentation looks into this particular phenomenon and attempts an explanation in the light of available Census data. In a season of re-thinking systems and structures the presentation hopes to open the pandora’s box of education governance in a bid to widen the debate beyond outcomes and nudge the analysis towards finding solutions to some of the entrenched problems of governance in this crucial sector.

Date: February 25, 2014
Time: 03:45 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

20 February 2014: The Effects of NREGA on Loan Contracts

Clive Bell
University of Heidelberg, Germany

Date: February 20, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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Monday, February 17, 2014

25 February 2014: Food Inflation in India: Causes, Consequences and Policy Implications

Organised by:
Macro/Finance Group

Program

Date: February 25, 2014
Time: 10:00 A.M.

Venue:
NIPFP Auditorium (Ground Floor), Old Building
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area,
New Delhi-110067(INDIA)

Location:

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Thursday, February 13, 2014

20 February 2014: The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance

Eswar Prasad
Brookings Institution and Cornell University

Abstract:
The U.S. dollar’s dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008-2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and the emergence of the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s displacement as the main reserve currency, which counters this conventional wisdom. Prof. Prasad argues that the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. His book offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe haven currency. Prasad will also offer his views on the renminbi's potential as a reserve currency, putting it in the context of China's growth prospects.

Date: February 20, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Lecture Hall No. 1,
India International Centre,
Max Mueller Marg, Lodi Estate,
New Delhi - 110 003(INDIA)

Location:

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Tuesday, February 11, 2014

19 February 2014: Toxic Pollution in India: The Unseen Public Health Menace

Richard Fuller
Blacksmith Institute
H. Conrad Meyer III
Blacksmith Institute
V Rajagopalan
Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India
Keshav Desiraju
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

Abstract:
The health impacts of toxic pollution, chemicals and wastes constitute an under-recognized global epidemic. Indeed, WHO estimates that one-fifth of the global burden of disease is attributable to environmental health problems. This little known yet major public health and environmental issue affects India as much as it does other developing countries. Exposure to toxic hotspots puts millions at risk. Worldwide, populations at risk from toxic pollution may exceed 200 million. In India, where some 320 sites have been identified so far, the estimate is about 25 million. And studies show that the health risks from toxic pollution are comparable to those from outdoor pollution and malaria. In short, this is a problem of scale. These health impacts are horrendous and tragic. Toxicants such as lead, mercury, chromium and others cause mental retardation, cancers, neurological damage, and gastro-intestinal and auto-immune disorders. In extreme cases, such exposures result in death. And, sadly, children and pregnant women are the ones most affected. With help from World Bank, Blacksmith Institute and others, the Indian government is tackling this issue. It is currently remediating the 10 worst polluted sites in the country. But the scale of the problem requires efforts from all stakeholders: government, industry, NGOs and the general public. Richard Fuller, President, Blacksmith Institute and the pioneer in calling the world's attention to this issue, will discuss the contours of the problem in India, the current state of play, and the recommended next steps. Dr V. Rajagopalan, Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests and Shri K. Desiraju, Secretary, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare will explain the initiatives being taken by their Ministries to deal with the ecological and health aspects of toxic pollution. Conrad Meyer, Chairman, Blacksmith Institute, will place efforts in India in the context of international action on toxic pollution, chemicals and wastes.

Date: February 19, 2014
Time: 10:30 A.M. (Registration: 10:00 A.M.)

Venue:
WWF Auditorium,
172-B, Lodhi Estate,
New Delhi - 110003(INDIA)

Location:

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Friday, February 7, 2014

13 February 2014: What Moves the Price-Rent Ratio? A Modifed Present-Value Approach

Kundan Kishor
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, USA

Abstract:
This paper proposes a modified present-value model that takes into account the fact that movements in the price-rent ratio may not be mean-reverting. Our approach decomposes the price-rent ratio into expected real rent growth, expected housing return and a non-present-value (NPV) component that represents the deviation of the price-rent ratio from its conventional present-value level for the 18 U.S. metropolitan areas and the nation from 1975 through 2012. This NPV component takes into account non-stationarity of the price-rent ratio. To estimate this modified present-value model, we use the unobserved component approach. Our findings suggest that the NPV component is significant and sometimes very large both at the national and the regional level. This is especially true for the MSAs that have experienced frequent booms and busts in the housing market. We also find that the MSAs that display larger deviation from the present-value model are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes. Our approach also allows us to estimate the correlation between expected rent growth, expected housing return and the NPV component. We find that the shock to expected housing return and shock to non-stationary NPV component is highly positively correlated in the pre-2006 sample period implying that they did feed off each other. This correlation declined significantly in the post-2006 sample period. Our results also show that most of the variations in the present-value component of the price-rent ratio arise due to the variations in expected housing return.

Date: February 13, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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12 February 2014: Earnings Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment

David Mare
Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, New Zealand

Abstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has the potential to raise domestic productivity and increase incomes, leading to improved living standards. FDI is often argued to be a source of direct benefits to the receiving firm, including improvements in management capability and access to overseas technologies and networks as well as financial capital. If the benefits of improved productivity and profitability are shared with local workers, this can in turn lead to higher incomes for New Zealand workers. Such benefits may also be available to other local firms, via observation, via transactions between foreign-owned firms and local suppliers and customers, through product market competition, and through labour mobility. These benefits (both direct and indirect) are often cited as a rationale for reducing barriers to FDI and supporting greater foreign investment into New Zealand.

This paper explores a key potential source of economic benefits from foreign direct investment – human capital accumulation and earnings increases by New Zealand employees of multinational firms. We consider the following questions:

Do foreign owned firms source labour differently from NZ-owned firms?
Do foreign firms pay higher wages (or provide higher wage growth) for a similar initial level of skill?
Where do employees of foreign-owned firms end up when they leave their jobs?
Does employment in a foreign-owned firm have a lasting impact on individual wages?

Date: February 12, 2014
Time: 03:00 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room (First Floor)
Department of Economics,
Delhi School of Economics,
New Delhi-110007(INDIA)

Location:

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Tuesday, February 4, 2014

10 February 2014: Direct Benefit Transfers and Financial Inclusion in India: View from the Ground

Stephen Rasmussen
The Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP)and
Gregory Chen
The Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP)and
Shweta Banerjee
The Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP)

Abstract:
With over 200,000 bank agents on the ground, a push for direct benefit transfers, and a new approach to regulation, India seems to be moving fast towards its goal of achieving a bank account for every citizen by 2016. How is it playing out on the ground?

CGAP has recently released two pieces of research, one looked at electronic benefit transfers in the state of Andhra Pradesh from demand, supply and policy perspectives, and the other was a national survey of bank agents across the country. This BBL will share the results and bring to bear global trends on the same issues that India is currently grappling with.

Date: February 10, 2013
Time: 12:30 P.M.

Venue:
Ground Floor Conference Room
The World Bank,
70 Lodi Estate,
New Delhi-110003(INDIA)

Location:

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Note:
Please confirm your attendance by email to Rita Dawar (rdawar@worldbank.org) by Friday, February 7th.

Monday, February 3, 2014

6 February 2014: The Crisis in Elementary Education: How Governance Matters Findings from a Community Monitoring Pilot in 10 Indian states

Kiran Bhatty
Centre for Policy Research

Abstract:
Based on a pilot on ‘community monitoring’, conducted in 10 states over a period of almost 3 years, the presentation will highlight different aspects of governance that impact the delivery of elementary education, especially in its current form as a fundamental right guaranteed under the Right to Education Act. It attempts to go behind the “outcomes” story to highlight elements in the governance structure that contribute to the poor state of public school education in India. The pilot while aimed at experimenting with a set of tools and methodology for community monitoring of RTE revealed more than simple non-compliance with the provisions of the Act. It brought to the fore numerous aspects of the education system that do not receive adequate att ention in discussions on education: from the huge gaps and discrepancies in the official data collection system [DISE], to the highly problematic structure of financing education including norms, allocations and fund flows; from the inadequacies of the bureaucratic structures especially at lower levels, to making a mockery of the idea of decentralized planning; from the non-existent systems of accountability, to the mal-functioning of monitoring institutions, and to even a lack of understanding of the rights-based approach despite the passage of the RTE Act, -the problems besetting the education system are of crisis proportions.

In a season of re-thinking systems and structures the presentation hopes to open the pandora’s box of education governance in a bid to widen the debate beyond outcomes and nudge the analysis towards finding solutions to some of the entrenched problems of governance in this crucial sector.

Date: February 6, 2014
Time: 11:00 A.M.

Venue:
Conference Room
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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