Wednesday, September 26, 2012

10 October 2012: Brazil as a Rising Economic Power

Marcos Troyjo
Columbia University

Abstract:
Up until very recently, it was believed Brazil had devised an economic model assembling high growth and social inclusion.

In the past 10 years, Brazil has based its economic expansion on both the appetite of the domestic market for higher consumption levels and income distribution mechanisms that lifted the lives of millions. Low productivity, poor infrastructure and outdated labour and fiscal laws have however cooled off much of the enthusiasm for Brazil as growth stalled in recent months.

Is Brazil really adopting a set of policies that amount to a “development model” to lead the country toward global economic stardom? Or is Brazil just experiencing a cyclical “growth pattern” that now loses momentum? What does the road ahead look like for Latin America´s largest economy?

Marcos Troyjo will discuss whether Brazil`s rise as an economic power can be sustained over time or if the country is destined to fall short of its vast potential.

Date: October 10, 2012
Time: 03:O0 P.M.

Venue:
ICRIER Conference Room,
Core 6A, 4th Floor,
India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road,
New Delhi – 110 003(INDIA)

Location:

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10 October 2012: Shocks – What do SVAR Models Tell us About the Postwar Business Cycle?

David Kim
University of Sydney

Abstract:
Which shock is the most dominant driver of the postwar business cycle fluctuations? Does SVAR-based evidence justify discarding the technology shock driven real business cycle (RBC) hypothesis, as in Gali (1999), Francis and Ramey (2005), and Gali and Rabanal (2004)? To further investigate the plausibility of technology shocks as a driving force of US business cycle fluctuations, we re-visit some of the most commonly understood structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. They are the SVAR models of Cochrane (1994a), Gali (1999), Shapiro and Watson (1988) and King, Plosser, Stock and Watson (1991). Across all versions of these models, technology shocks are as important in explaining economic fluctuations as aggregate demand shocks combined. We also show that technology shocks retain sizable conditional correlations with output in the postwar US data. Our SVAR evidence suggests that the technology shock driven models should not be discarded as a positive theory of the business cycle. Recent theoretical advances with investment specific technology or varying factor shares may help justify the empirical importance of technology shocks.

Date: October 10, 2012
Time: 03:O0 P.M.

Venue:
ICRIER Conference Room,
Core 6A, 4th Floor,
India Habitat Centre, Lodi Road,
New Delhi – 110 003(INDIA)

Location:

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Friday, September 21, 2012

25 September 2012: Subaltern Urbanisation

Partha Mukhopadhyay
Centre for Policy Research

Abstract:
India’s urbanisation is following at least two concomitant paths; first, a traditional metro-centric agglomeration process driven partly by the movement of people and second a process involving, inter alia, the transformation of places, which are dispersed across the country, a process that can be usefully compared with in-situ urbanization in China. Subaltern urbanisation refers to the growth of such settlements that are independent of the metropolis and autonomous in their interactions with other settlements, local and global. Analyzing conventional and new data sources “against the grain”, it is claimed that there are many such economically vital smaller settlements in India, contrary to perceptions that India’s urbanisation is slow, that its smaller settlements are stagnant and its cities are not productive. Instead of basing policy on illusions of control, it is necessary to try and understand how agents construct this world, if we are to comprehend the ongoing Indian transformation. This work is part of a larger eponymous project, entitled “SUBURBIN” and entails joint work with many other researchers.

Date: September 25, 2012
Time: 03:45 P.M.

Venue:
Conference Hall
Centre for Policy Research,
Dharma Marg, Chanakyapuri,
New Delhi–110021(INDIA)

Location:

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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

17 September 2012: Does marginal cost pricing of electricity affect groundwater pumping behaviour of farmers? Evidence from West Bengal, India

Aditi Mukherji
International Water Management Institute, New Delhi

Abstract:
As part of the power sector reforms in India, West Bengal began electric metering of agricultural consumers in 2007. Following this, tube well owners were charged on the basis of power usage instead of the prevalent flat tariff rate. An impact evaluation was undertaken to quantify the implications of the policy change. Surveys conducted in 2004 and 2007 served as a baseline. A 3ie-supported follow-up survey was undertaken in 2010, to create a panel data set for analysis.

The study found that a groundwater market had flourished where tube well owners were selling water to marginal farmers. Post-metering, tube well owners increased the price of water even though they had to pay a lower electricity cost. Metering, in effect, had disempowered small and marginal farmers and increased the leverage of tube well owners. Besides, it did not influence either cropping patterns, or the paddy output.

The researchers of this impact evaluation - A Mukherji, JV Meenakshi, A Banerji and A Gupta identified existing legislation that needed to be amended in order to empower small and marginal farmers. The evidence from the study was presented to the new state government that assumed office in 2011 which carried out the necessary policy change.

Date: September 17, 2012
Time: 03:30 P.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room
ISID Complex, Plot No. 4
Vasant Kunj Institutional Area
New Delhi- 110 070(INDIA)

Location:

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Monday, September 3, 2012

7 September 2012: Does Heterogenity affect the Group Cost Of Living Index?

Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay
Indian Statistical Institute

Abstract:
A Cost Of Living Index is a measure Of change in welfare when price
changes. It is usually defined for an individual/household. But almost
all the real world policies are concerned with the Cost Of Living
Index for a group. There are methods in literature that show the way
to construct Group Cost Of Living Index. The importance of Group Cost
Of Living Index is to tackle the heterogenity in household cost of
living indices and come up with an unique figure. I consider a very
simple set up where heterogenity in budget shares is the only source
of variation in the cost of living indices across households. The
question is whether the heterogenity in budget shares matter to the
change in Group Cost of Living Index. I show that it does for several
important cases.

Date: September 7, 2012
Time: 11:30 A.M.

Venue:
Seminar Room 2
Indian Statistical Institute Delhi Centre,
7, S. J. S. Sansanwal Marg,
New Delhi-110016 (INDIA)

Location:

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